8 pt swing after first two days of convention - how big will Obama's convention "bump" be?

Question

According to the Gallup Daily Tracking poll, Obama has moved up 4 pts and McCain down 4 pts since before the convention. That is a three day average that only takes into account the first 2 nights of the convention, including Michelle's speech and Hillary's speech. Being a 3 day average it still includes polling numbers from before the convention started. Biden's speech, Bill Clinton's speech and Obama's speech still haven't been factored in.

How big do you think Obama's "bump" will be after the convention is over?

Answer 1

That's odd.  Rasmussen has them even.

"The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows hints of a modest convention bounce building for Barack Obama. The Democrat gained a point from yesterday and now attracts 45% of the vote nationwide while John McCain earns 44%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 47% and McCain 47% "

Answer 2

The bump on his head will be twice as big.

Answer 3

I guess it depends on whether you care about polls or not. Once the conventions are over then Obama will get unloaded on for Ayer, Resko, Wright, etc and his candidacy will be over. They just have to wait until he actually gets the nomination so they don't have to face Hillary, who might've actually won.

America will wonder how on earth they got so duped by the time November comes around. I bet McCain ends up beating Obama by 20+ points once all the Obama info comes out.

It will be a pleasure to watch.

Answer 4

Polls mean nothing in this election:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_eff...

Answer 5

Oh man Biden went on stage and just ripped McCain to pieces. I loved it. Then he started sabre rattling at Russia and I was like uuuggghhh come on man Democrats don't wanna hear that garbage. It seemed the reaction from the crowd was similar to mine too.

I think that it will settle around 10 points. The thing is, the media will insist on keeping this a horse race to protect their bottom line so they'll beat up on Obama for a while to make it even again. Also the Repugs convention is coming up too so they'll bounce back.

Answer 6

Not sure, but McCain is getting ready to announce his running mate soon.

If he picks Romney or some other neocon stooge, Obama's "bump" could turn astronomical.

Answer 7

You mean some people watched the convention?  *yawn*

Answer 8

Bill Clinton was pretty d**n good in my opinion.  I think he'll help a lot.  I wasn't impressed by Biden's speech too much, but I do like his actions in the past, so he's OK by me.

Answer 9

Unfortunatly, I don't think the bump will last long, because the RNC is in a few days.  McCain will get a bump, and then it should even up again.

Answer 10

Supposed to get 15 points because of Hillary contoversy ending. He will probably get 8-10 which is typical. He will probably be back at 3-5 after the republican convention.

That is within the range of error.

Answer 11

I don't think he will get near the bump they think he will.  I think he will be disappointed.

Answer 12

The rule of thumb is that a candidate should expect a 15 point bump after a convention due to the massive exposure.

8 points is nothing to brag about.

Answer 13

They're going to call of the election and hand him the keys to Airforce 1

Answer 14

Most coventions give a 15-20% bump

HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM......................... where dat be?



I watched Americas got Talent.

Sure wasn't any at the convention

That had higher ratings than the convention at any one time