A question for all you NFL draft fanatics like me?

Question

Isn't it amazing that a 6th round draft pick such as New Englands Tom Brady can be so good being drafted so late? Have you noticed that alot of NFL draftees are a brother, cousin, son, of a former NFL player, and also they are often football coaches sons ?

Like Reche Caldwell brother got drafted and he is not that good, Reche was on Chargers as a first rounder and he was way overrated, even players here said so. Now his brother got drafted high just because he did good on Combine cone drills, 40 yard dashes ect.

So Andre Caldwell could have just picked Reches brain for a year and he had inside information on Combine so he could practice it 24/7 so he would have unusually high rating at combine ,like he did, and this would get him drafted high, but is he really good or just at Combine.

Also a player might have great college numbers (sacks for example) not because he is so good, but because the guys around him are better so they get more double teams, which allows the less talented player to get the numbers and get drafted higher?

So is this why even though you draft a first or second rounder he could very well be a bust and many times is?

Answer 1

You bring up two excellent points on way the draft can be a disaster for GMs who focus on the Combine and college stats.  I totally agree.

The Combine isn't even a snapshot of a player's ability.  It's easy to have a bad Combine and be a great player due to circumstances and factors that might be affecting any given player during it.  Further, there's a lot of factors, many important intangible ones, that just can't be measured by the Combine.

When they made the Wonderlic test universal for draft invitees, the NFL thought it would help nail down those intangibles.  However, the basic, general intelligence of a player doesn't really translate into what their football smarts are like.  Take Vince Young who scored a 6 (out of 50) on the test, for example.

As to stats, these debates rage on into the pros.  You've nailed the problem with this on the head:  Since football is a TEAM sport, how much of an individual player's stats are impacted by the players around him?  How important are these stats in predicting his future performance?  Also, incidental things like weather, a stadium's orientation to winds, etc. can also impact a player's stats.

A good NFL team's scouting department will do the arduous legwork and homework to not only visit and watch potential draftees play, but spend hours and hours analyzing game tapes.  As to the intangibles, like character, for instance, they will do the work to examine the young  player's personal history; not just talking to college coaches, but talking to their roommates, parents, neighbors, law enforcement people, etc.

Often a GM may just have some sort of divine or gut feeling about a draftee.  Like Ernie Accorsi's trade for Eli Manning, top pick in 2004.  Accorsi pretty much bet the farm--trading Rivers + 3 draft picks, including a 1st--for Manning.  He was seriously questioned in the media, by the fans, and by the analysts in doing this.  He was ridiculed for it when Eli wasn't doing so well.  But now, Ernie is having the last laugh.  Remember, you have to give a draft class 4 years before you can really evaluate it.  Accorsi just "felt in his bones" that Eli was something special and he hadn't seen anything like it since he had drafted John Elway.

Very often lower picks have more overall potential than the highest picks.  A good GM knows this and won't get all desperate-like in the first round or two.  The NFL is, as you know, full of outstanding stars that weren't even drafted.  A good GM knows how to "bargain shop".

Best recent example of this is Jerry Reese's draftees last year.  All 8 made the team and all 8 contributed greatly to the Giants' Superbowl run.  The lowly 7th round pick, Bradshaw, is considered to be one of the hottest young RBs in the league...and look at some of the free agents he picked up!  Very shrewd moves by a great new GM, who happened to be the head of their scouting department for many years.

So a good GM has to have uncanny foresight and while he may factor in the Combine and the college stats and the police reports and the injury factors, he has to see a much, much, much greater  picture.  Very few GMs, in my opinion, have this ability.  Look at so many of the GMs buying proven vet talent and wasting valuable cap space instead of drafting smart.