Adam Dunn's Chances at 500?

Question

A month ago I asked about Adam Dunn's chances at 500 HR's, and even at 600.

Many stated he didnt have much a chance at 500, and almost NO chance at 600. Why not?

Sure, he isnt a great hitter when you look at average, but over all he has a good OBP due to him leading or near the top in walks. He has a good SLG average also.

He is in a HR friendly ball park, walks often(leading the league), leading the league in HR production(and has been at the top or leading over the last several years!), and still has many years ahead of him.

Take into consideration he is just 28, he easily has 3-4 years of 40+ HR's, and maybe even 5-6 more 40+ HR seasons. At that point he will be right at, or over 500 and will only be in the league for 12-14 years, so even a few years after that he could play, especially if he goes to the A.L. and is a DH.

Anyway, I know I may be over doing it being a Reds fan, but what are his chances based on this info?

Answer 1

500 maybe,but 600 i doubt it.

Answer 2

personally, i think you are completely overrating him...3-4 of 40+ hr's? i don't think so, 30+ maybe but not 40...the other issue is that he's probably got about 10 years of 150+ strikeouts coming to him, which means teams will be reluctant to take a chance on him later in his career, and he won't get as many shots as you apparently think

500 is a reachable goal, but 600 is unrealistic altogether

Answer 3

Goes to show that 500 home runs isn't what it used to be. It's still very impressive, but the days were 500 homers guarantees you a spot in cooperstown are almost over. Frank Thomas will probably make it, but Jim Thome may or may not. After him, players will likely need more on their resume than 500 homers to be seriously considered for the hall of fame. Now if he makes 600...

Answer 4

i really think Dunn will end up with somewhere in the mid 500's. But if his average continues to drop, he could wind up in the same position as richie sexon...he just has to get his average up a little bit

Answer 5

he's is gonna be traded soon or leave because of free agency at end of season so... with that said ya he can make it to 500 or 600 i like him hes a good player

Answer 6

He's 28 with 266 home runs. He plays till he's 40 he will get around 600 homeruns if he stays at his pace