Aidan O’Brien faces trial of endurance
Form is temporary, class is permanent is a regular incantation which is usually reserved for the losers rather than winners.
Aidan O’Brien has often made a slow start to the season but that has not prevented him from being in the winner’s enclosure when the first major prizes of the season were being handed out. In 2005 O’Brien travelled to the Guineas meeting at Newmarket having saddled 13 favourites in opening weeks of that season, of which 12 had been beaten. He returned to his Ballydoyle yard with both of the Classics won by Footstepsinthesand and Virginia Waters.
Footstepsinthesand’s victory in that year’s 2000 Guineas was achieved without the need of a preparatory run but this weekend was a different story. O’Brien ran St Nicholas Abbey, Fencing Master and Viscount Nelson in the 2000 Guineas – all running for the first time this year – and none of them figured in the finish. O’Brien has saddled 13 winners so far this season but 12 of them have come in maiden races while he is 1-21 in Group races in Britain and Ireland.
That solitary victory by Fame And Glory came in the Group Three Mooresbridge Stakes at the Curragh yesterday, a race where he was rated at least 19lbs better than any of his four rivals on official figures. Fame And Glory had also had the benefit of a run this season, which may prove important in the next couple of weeks because, of the 14 races run at Newmarket on Saturday and Sunday, 11 were won by horses who had already run previously this season.
Previous form suggests that any slump in O’Brien’s fortunes can be overcome but the harsh winter that settled on both Ireland and Britain has certainly taken its toll and it will be very informative to watch the performance of his runners at this week’s Chester meeting, for which he will be targeting the Classic trials with some of his possible Derby and Oaks contenders.
His runner in the 1000 Guineas, Devoted To You, never figured despite having the advantage of being drawn in stall five in a race where there the first five places were filled by horses drawn one to seven. The heavy overnight rain appears to be the reason for the draw bias, which did not show itself in the result of the 2000 Guineas the previous day.
Ryan Moore and Kieren Fallon, the riders of Music Show (sixth) and Seta (12th) both said that their chances had been badly compromised by their draw positions of 15 and nine respectively and Music Show’s trainer, Mick Channon, was not happy. Quoted on his website the trainer said: "It's just one of those things and while I'd never say we would have definitely won, it's blatantly obvious that the draw favoured those on the stand side. You can't track across from so wide a draw in a Classic, that would be suicide and to be honest the first two races couldn't tell us anything about any possible bias. Rileyskeepingfaith was also drawn high in the following contest and that race confirmed all you needed to know that the low numbers had the advantage.
“What can you say? Music Show won her race on the far side, but that's no consolation. On form with Noel's horse [Jacqueline Quest] and Distinctive, they might have improved massively since the Nell Gwyn, we might have regressed, but I'm not having that. They've beaten us from a low draw and it was the draw that has meant we were well out of it from a long way out.
“Ryan was gutted, I'm gutted, but that's racing. It's nobody's fault, just our bloody luck. I'll tell you one thing though, I'd still have our filly over anything else in the race. It's a long season and I just want to take them all on again to see who's filly is the best about because ours will take some beating.”
Luca Cumani, the trainer of Seta, is a man who can be relied on for a thoughtful comment and he was quoted by the Daily Mail as saying: “It is just one of those things. It was a mockery of a race because only the horses on the stands' rail had a chance, but it's no-one's fault. The track had not been watered for nearly a week. You can't complain about things you have no control over.”
It has been suggested that an indication could have been provided for trainers, racegoers and backers if there has been another race run over the course that could have highlighted any draw bias. Racecourses have developed policies of ground management which have been implemented with a view to ensuring that big meetings, and the races that are the centrepiece of those cards, are run on the best possible ground.
Michael Prosser, the director of racing at Newmarket, works with almost military precision in moving running rails both between fixtures and even after individual days within a meeting to provide fresh ground.
As it was, the day’s programme opened with a 12-furlong race where the field raced on the far side of the track and a Group Three fillies and mares’ race that habitually attracts single-figure fields.
What would have been the reaction if the race before the 1000 Guineas had indeed been the six-furlong handicap - which was run directly afterwards – and 23 runners had galloped over the same course – on rain-softened ground - that would be used for a Group One race just 30 minutes later?
There can often be grounds for drawing a conclusion but it does not always make it the right one.
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