Aidan O’Brien still playing the numbers game
The old adage was that if a trainer had three colts that he believed were good enough to run in a Classic, the chances were that he did not have one who was good enough to win.
Aidan O'Brien might find life a shade easier if he could whittle them down to just three. His potential squad for the Investec Derby is still to be finalised but he has at least managed to pare down his final selection for the Abu Dhabi Irish 2000 Guineas, run at the Curragh on Saturday, to just the six runners.
The one that O’Brien appears to be relishing running most is Steinbeck. Before most outside of his Ballydoyle yard had even heard of St Nicholas Abbey, Steinbeck was the colt who was at the head of the market for the 2000 Guineas after winning his maiden at Naas a year ago.
He was not seen out again until the Dewhurst Stakes, where he finished fourth, and then missed the Guineas due to a setback but nothing has set back O’Brien’s regard for the colt, who was sired by his 2000 Guineas winner of five years ago, Footstepsinthesand. “It’ll be his first run of the year but he's just ready to run and hopefully he's ready to run a nice race,” O’Brien told At The Races. “He was ready to run in the spring but had a little setback before Newmarket. Rather than force him and rush him, we gave him time and he's had it now. He's had a racecourse gallop, matured well and he's just ready to start back.”
Having decided that Steinbeck was ready for the Guineas, O’Brien has opted to keep him apart from another of the Ballydoyle battalions. Jan Vermeer, named after the Dutch painter, was O’Brien’s last Group One winner, in the Criterium International at Saint-Cloud in November, and the Montjeu colt looked impressive as he won by four lengths. He is another who still holds an entry for the Derby and starts off in the Airlie Stud Gallinule Stakes at the Curragh on Sunday.
“Obviously when we said we were going to start Steinbeck in the Guineas we wanted to split them up, so he'll start there and we'll see how he is,” O'Brien explained. “He just needs a run, it will be a nice step back for him. He’s still in the Derby picture but obviously we need to see him first and see how forward he is. We feel he's just ready to start but obviously he'll come on a lot, sometimes a run can bring them on a lot.”
How much the run that St Nicholas Abbey had when he finished sixth in the 2000 Guineas has been debated so long that there has been a call for extra supplies of midnight in some parts, but O’Brien retains his faith in the colt. “He's in good form and everything has gone so far so good really. Obviously we’re still looking at Epsom. It was his first run of the year at Newmarket, he jumped out and was a little bit fresh with Johnny [Murtagh]. Frankie [Dettori]'s horse [Al Zir] just gave him a bump and just got him going a little bit earlier than he wanted to.
“Maybe he went into top gear a little bit early and when the race started in earnest, he never had a chance to get relaxed and his race was over then really. In an ideal world we would have preferred a better pace which would have helped him get into a nice rhythm, but it wasn't to be on the day.
“All the horses that ran at that time of year have been coming on a lot for the run and we're hoping they'll all come forward a good deal. He's always looked a very well-balanced horse and he's a horse that can travel at speed so we never thought the track would be a problem.”
The biggest problem for O'Brien might be keeping a track on all his potential Derby runners, which include Cape Blanco and Midas Touch - the winners of the Dante Stakes and Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial respectively - usually considered two of the best pointers Epsom trials.
“Cape Blanco is in good form. He's been cantering since York and Midas Touch has been in good form since Leopardstown. They’re both back in full work but we are just taking it day by day and we'll just see how their work goes but we are happy with both.”
O’Brien will probably be happy to keep playing it by the numbers.
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