Racing may seem one of the more decadent pastimes but it does tip its hat to one of the principles of communism, in its own way.
The handicap is the man-made device which attempts to make all horses equal, at least for betting purposes. However, there are two horses whose participation could have a great effect on races this month, albeit from opposite ends of the scale.
The news that Denman had been entered for the Coral Scottish Grand National, at Ayr on April 17th, may be box-office attraction material for the racecourse but may not be such an attraction for those who view the race from a betting perspective and even less for a lot of hungry jockeys.
Denman is currently rated at 182, 8lbs higher than when he won the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury last November. Unlike the days of Arkle, who regularly carried top weights of 12st 7lb when he won major handicaps like the Hennessy or Whitbread Gold Cups, Denman will be set to carry the more modest burden of 11st 12lb. However, that is likely to place a heavier burden on the rest of the field.
As the current entries stand, the next horse in the weights is Madison du Berlais, who is joint topweight for the John Smith’s Grand National. However, in the Scottish version is set to carry the comparative featherweight of 10st 1lb and Silver By Nature, winner of the Blue Square Gold Cup at Haydock last month, sneaks into the bottom of the handicap proper on 10st.
From there on any other runners would have to be carrying more weight than the handicapper would have intended. For example Burton Point, the runner-up in the RSA Chase at the Cheltenham Festival gets in on 9st 10lbs while the Chief Dan George, who won the William Hill Trophy at the Festival , would be carrying 8lbs more than his allotted weight of 9st 6lb and many jockeys would be looking at living on the thinnest of rations for a few days to avoid putting up overweight in the race.
At least Chief Dan George would be allowed to run in the race, which may still not be the case for his chances of taking part in the Grand National. When the weights for that race were announced early last month Chief Dan George was rated at 136 but two wins since have shown him to be coming right back to his best form from his hurdling days, when he reached a career peak rating of 150.
He is now officially regarded as 12lbs well-in for the National, meaning that he should be running off a weight of 11st rather than the 10st 2lb that he is weighted with now. However it is the waiting that is the main issue for the horse’s trainer, Jimmy Moffatt.
On current form there should a be queue lining up to back him for the National but Chief Dan George himself is in a queue for a place in the final line-up. There are only 40 places available and he needs 17 of the horses above him in the handicap to drop out before he gets a run.
Thus Moffatt finds himself with the horse who is ahead of the handicapper but behind the eight ball. As he said to the Daily Telegraph: “I'm normally a bit of a worrier, but on this occasion I'm not because it's completely out of our hands. In a way it takes the pressure off. It doesn't affect his training either way because we can go for the Scottish National or Bet365, and if he doesn't get in the National then we'll make it the aim next year.”
The final aim for Denman may be decided by the weather because connections will not run the horse if the ground is deemed to be too fast. However, the current weather forecast shows that there has been an inch of rain on the course in recent days and there is no great improvement on the cards.
Moffatt may be sweating on Chief Dan George running at Aintree but, if Denman gets his ground, there could be a lot of jockeys left sweating in the sauna at Ayr.
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