Antarctica joins the party. Is this the straw which breaks the "skeptics" back?

Question

"Antarctic ice sheet shrinking rapidly"

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20080114.ANTARCTIC14/TPStory/Environment

Independent confirmation here:

"More ice melt discovered in Antarctica"

http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/Science/2008/01/14/more_ice_melt_discovered_in_antarctica/3899/

Google News search Antarctica global warming for many more stories.

Answer 1

We're so (in trouble)...

Skepticism will not subside however, because it's a profitable business strategy for the oil industry and skepticism is considered to be a viable public facade for some to maintain in politics:

"A recently leaked memo written by Frank Luntz, the US Republican and corporate strategist, warned that 'The environment is probably the single issue on which Republicans in general - and President Bush in particular - are most vulnerable... Should the public come to believe that the scientific issues are settled, their views about global warming will change accordingly. Therefore, you need... to make the lack of scientific certainty a primary issue.'"

http://politics.guardian.co.uk/columnist...

One comment to anyone confused about warming vs. precipitation / accumulation... Once it's below 32 degrees, which is much of the time in Antarctica, minor warming will not reduce ice pack accumulation.  In fact increased heat and evaporation elsewhere can cause more precipitation, which happens to fall as more snow in Antarctica (since global warming does not change the freezing temperature of water).

Answer 2

It's just one study.

Some of the stories acknowledge that other studies concluding that Antarctic ice mass is increasing, but the only research that gets reported is the ones that show ice is melting.  

I have seen previous reports from NASA that Antarctica has been increasing in ice mass for some time.  I don't think anyone expects that to go on for ever, otherwise eventually the entire world would be covered in ice.

Answer 3

Bob - this is from Nature and states the same...

Answer 4

The second article states that the study found that the eastern part of Antarctica was stable in size over the same period of time.  

How does global warming affect one part of Antarctica and not the other?  Is global warming a regional thing for Antarctica?

Liked your source TomCat!

Answer 5

I would not say Antarctica has joined the party, I would say it is more of an nonconformists than ever.

From your first link:

"The figures were calculated by deducting the amount of ice losses on the continent from the amount of snow that computer models indicate it receives"

More junk science computer games I see, predicted ice mass is far from reality especially considering it is the height of summer in the Antarctic and sea ice extent is still well above normal.

" will remind you it is mid-summer in the Southern Hemisphere. Ice extent remains well (one million square kilometers) above the 28 year average and an impressive 3 million square kilometers above last year at this time!.?

http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/...

EDIT:

Strawman defense tactics do no invalidate data derived from satellites, the continent of Antarctica does show any warming regardless of what predicted ice mass indicates. But that is what the science of global warming is all about, predictions.

Answer 6

Crud, that is not good news for rising sea levels.  It does however dramatically undermine what little credibility remained in the skeptics' arguments.  From the scientist interviewed in Bob's first article:

"I see [an upwelling of warm waters along the Antarctic coast] as the main driver for the change in ice mass. And this means that we are not in a natural cycle, but in something that is related to global warming or global climate change, whichever you want to call it," he said.

Answer 7

So at this rate minus the glaciers that are ignoring global warming and growing...

http://www.iceagenow.com/Growing_Glacier...

and the fact that WAIS has been shrinking now for 10,000 years, we should have an inch or two of ocean level rise over the next century.

http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/environm...



Your post just shows that the Ice is still melting like it has been doing since the end of the last Ice Age. The stories just exaggerate it to make it look ooooh scary.

Answer 8

Bob, I think you are aware that arctic sea ice is refreezing at a "record" pace.  I think you are also aware of the see-sawing theory of climate - that warming happens on one hemisphere and then the other and that this is perfectly natural.  I don't see anything that makes me think the warming is going to be catastrophic.

Answer 9

I would be surprised if the general warming that has taken place since the 1970s didn't affect Antarctica as well.  The difference is, I don't see it as a sign that the world is ending and I don't see it as a sign that humans have caused it.  Just because it is 45 below zero instead of 50 below zero doesn't mean it will melt.  Some will melt but certainly not all and probably not a significant amount.  That is the fate of glaciers, they accumulate and then they flow downhill and then they melt.

Answer 10

We've repeatedly found actual measured data demonstrating that the model predictions for ice melt were too conservative.  This is a nail-in-the-coffin of anyone that claims the models are overestimating the problem of ice-melt and the subsequent sea-level rise.

Answer 11

Sadly I don't think so. The skeptics will just find another reason to deny it. Either that or they'll just say "they're ALL wrong. they're all just liberals and run by al gore"

They're denial comes from the fact that they just don't care and don't want to care.

Eventually, when every single scientific community backs this concept, and every argument and counterpoint has been exhuasted the skeptics will just up and say "look, we're just not gonna do anything about it, so hush up"

Answer 12

No.  Their property in the hills of West Virginia could become beachfront property, and they'd still deny that the earth was getting warmer.  If they admitted the world is getting warmer, they'd say that there is nothing that people could do about it.