Any chance on a long shot winning 2007 Kentucky Derby?

Question

Five years ago, I really regret not making a $100 bet on War Embleem, which would have paid $7500k, or more. I was doing well with baseball, and had money to play with. Needless to say, I didnt place the bet, after thinking about it for awhile. How about this year. I was thinking about putting $100 each on the 6 horses with the highest odds, making payouts of 4-7k. Would this be a waste of money, considering the fact that so many horses are entered.

Answer 1

sure there is a chance of a long shot winning. but it very small (which is way they call them long shots)  

Maybe mix it up a bit put some mony on the ones with the highest odds and some on a few long shots.  

Since the odds are you are going to lose money when you gamble, it's always a waste of money unless you win.

Answer 2

I think there is a very good chance that the winner of the Derby this year will pay off at odds of 10-1 or better, and I would be surprised indeed if at least one of the first three horses across the finish line isn't 20-1 or greater.

There is no horse in this version of the Derby that is so outstanding as to have the aura of invincibility to go off at odds-on.  Curlin has his fans, as do Hard Spun and Scat Daddy and Street Sense and Circular Quay.  But most of these horses haven't raced against one another, so the form is hard to assess;  none of them have gone 1-1/4 miles, and none of them has ever raced under conditions even approaching the insanity they will encounter on Derby Day.  Plus this year, we have the added variable of prep races run on synthetic track surfaces:  how will performance on those surfaces translate to performance at Churchill Downs?

Given all the variables involved, and all the unknown quantities involved, I think this is going to be a Derby where the person who closes their eyes and stabs a pin into the program to pick the winner has about as good a shot as the person who scientifically handicaps.  

Tip:  this is the kind of race where a friend of mine, who is a parimutuel clerk, says that you can sometimes make a profit by "buying the race."  This means betting on every horse to win.  A $2 win bet on every horse in the field will cost you $40;  if a horse wins at odds of 20-1 or greater, you're in the black.

Answer 3

Sure there is. With a 20 horse field, a lot of scenarios could develop. I think Zanerjo might have a shot along with Stormello, I'll be putting a few bucks on those two. Good Luck!!

Answer 4

I love Tiago!!!!

Answer 5

I always pick the long shots, its the only way to win any good money.  Every horse out there has a chance to win, so maybe it will be a long shots day.

Answer 6

The favorite does not usually win in this race.

A long shot has a good chance.

Answer 7

That is a smart play if one of your runners comes in. The favorite may go off at 4-1 - which won't help you - which will pay about nine bucks for a two dollar ticket.

I like Cowtown Cat to win it all and show vast improvement off his Illinois Derby win.

I am playing the Oaks-Derby Double, keying all for Friday and using the following to complete the ticket for Saturday - Cowtown Cat, Street Sense, Circular Quay, Scat Daddy, Curlin, Tiago and Hard Spun.

Five of my seven could be played in your idea, but take a good look at the form, watch the odds board and you may be cashing a real nice ticket Saturday night.

Answer 8

Curlin. He has won all his 3 races by such nice size leads! Plus, he didn't race as a 2yo and everybody thinks he's inexperienced but they are all wrong. So look for Curlin on Saturday because I believe he will win with a good size lead!

-mel

Answer 9

With so many horses in the Kentucky Derby, you're almost guaranteed a long shot winning.  I personally like Tiago.  That's a horse on the rise.  Young, lightly raced horses like Tiago have the most room for improvement.  Look a the Beyer speed figures.  They have steadily increased and the last race was a 100 Beyer in the win of the Santa Anita Derby.  If this horse continues to improve and puts up a 105 type Beyer, you're looking at a Derby WIN!  Also, this horse's trainer just recently made a switch to top notch jockey, Mike Smith in the Santa Anita win.  We've got an improving horse with the right jockey now aboard and this horse's brother, Giacomo won the Derby two years ago at 50-1 odds (the second longest odds in Derby history).

Answer 10

I have no idea how many horse are running or what your odds are but some horse has to win, why not yours.