Anyone else concerned over the defection of Circular Quay?

Question

Todd Pletcher has announced that Circular Quay will not run in The Wood this week-end but will train up to The Derby. This means he will have gone 8 weeks between his prep and the Derby. Does this raise any concerns for you?

Answer 1

I've been on him all along, and now I am a little worried.  I just don't buy the whole 2 hard races in 4 weeks bit, since when did 4 weeks off mean wheeling your horse back, I still thought it was 4 days.  Unless they are thinking fresh horse for the Derby and if they can win that the'll have a better shot at taking the Triple Crown.  Fitness or  distance won't be an issue with him being by Thunder Gulch out of a Belong To Me mare who's out of a Shadeed mare who's out of a Alydar mare.  His mare ran in the Oaks and was placed in the Ashland, and his sire Won the Derby and Belmont, he's one of the only horses on the trail with a pedigree to back up his running style.  He had a busy enough campaign as a 2 year old and won for fun in his last.  I won't be backing him as strongly as before, but I might actually get a much better price now, although Nobiz and Street Sense will be played more aggressively then I had originally planned, unless for some reason they run backwards and somehow loose their next starts.  10 years ago I would be really worried, but in the day and age of trainers doing the most illogical thing nothing looks out of the ordinary anymore (like what the h**l is up with Hard Spun? they need more defections from the Blue Grass to entice them to run? if not the're going to the Preakness, who the h**l do they think the'll face in Baltimore abunch of 2 lifers?).  Crazy times on the backside, maybe Ken Kesey is cruzing around the backstretches giving Derby trainers some Kool-Aid.

Answer 2

What concerns me most is how much Circular Quay's schedule has changed this year.  If Pletcher intentionally planned on running him off two preps and an eight week layoff because it was the best plan for the horse that wouldn't bother me so much.  But Pletcher all along planned on three preps for this horse.  To make matters worse, his first race back was pretty much a nonevent as he was taken up sharply to avoid a downed jockey.  I don't think we are being told the whole story here.  Something is wrong with the horse and whether he can rebound from that AND make up for lost foundation and momentum in time for the Derby is a very tall order.  This year's Derby field looks to be quite deep and competitive - with this setback I think there are too many other live contenders to back Circular Quay.

Lol edit back at you.  I don't think it is a serious injury (although I guess we'll know in the next few weeks) but at this stage in the game any little set-back can be huge in the Derby picture.

Answer 3

Great name for a racehorse,aussies rule!

Answer 4

I think he is too lightly raced as a 3-year-old to be ready for the 11/4.

Answer 5

i dont know what is going on in circular quay cause i live in ireland,but i am australian.just reading your question has made me very home sick.x

Answer 6

Yes, I'm very annoyed that he's not running actually...  the way he ran the BC Juvenile was amazing...  If he had a little better start and wasn't 20 lengths off the lead, he would have won...  he closed really well.  Then he won the LA Derby with another strong performance.  I love Thunder Gulch and I was really excited to see Circular Quay run the Triple Crown.  Then today I looked on the Yahoo Sports Horse Racing page and I read the story about Nobiz in the Wood and it says Circular isn't ready and his next race will likely be the 1 mile Derby!  So he's not even running the real derby??  I'm very concerned.  From what I've seen, Circular is a great horse and I don't understand how Any Given Saturday could be better than him (although I really liked his side-by-side run with Street Sense).  I'm sure Pletcher knows what he's doing...  I mean he's the trainer, not me...  but I am really disappointed because I think that horse could really be great if given the chance.  And even if he runs the derby, an 8 week layoff is quite a lot...  after last weekend I heard a lot about how the 5 weeks between the FL Derby and the KY Derby is too much, so if Circular does run the KY Derby, I don't think he'll be as prepared as the others...  even ignoring the 8 weeks: he'll be coming off of 1 win this year in 2 races...  and in his win none of the other great Derby contenders ran against him...  it doesn't sound like he has much of a chance even if he does run the KY Derby...  and I'm so upset because I feel like the son of Thunder Gulch could be as great as his sire if given the chance.

I just watched a video from TVG about Circular Quay and it makes me feel a little better.  The reporter talked to Pletcher and he sounds like he's just happy with Circular's performance and he doesn't need another race.  It sounds like Pletcher is still aiming for the KY Derby and he feels confident in Circular...  so I'm confident in him too...  and that's gonna be my attitude because I don't like to be so worried about a horse I like so much.

Answer 7

Well I was looking forward to see how good he'll do and if I should pick him as one of my Derby favorites, but now he will be lowered in my picks. Hopefully he doesn't have an injury though.

--melissa--

Answer 8

I am sure Pletcher talked with the owner and both decided that CQ doesn't need another race to - hopefully - peak on Derby Day.

His running style isn't suited for the Wood Memorial, as it typically sets up for a front-runner (why tracks want to set its major stakes' days for speed is another topic for another day).

The Derby is going to have speed to burn and I'm sure the hope is that CQ will be prepared to stalk and pick up the pieces in what may set up like the 2005 Derby.

And, he may have shown very early in his career that he can clock works that are as beneficial as racing.  I think he is a real live play for The Derby.