Anyone know which polling firms are considered most accurate?

Question

No partisan answers please. I can't find a reliable answer in a quick google search. But what's the general consensus? Which one tends to be the most accurate or respected of the bunch? Out of gallup, rasmussen, newsweek, etc?

I ask because there's some pretty ridiculous disparity, and it kinda undermines the entire industry. In the same 2-4 day period one poll has obama +12, another +15, another has it a tie between him and mccain. How can you trust any of it if the spread is that large?

Answer 1

Polling is heavily contingent upon the exact wording and ordering of the questions. Thus, comparing across polling entities can be tricky since they don't use the same words in their questions even though on the surface it may SOUND like they are trying to get at the same attitude. Therefore, unless the exact same poll is repeated across time I would be hesitant to attempt to compare them, regardless of the reputation of the polling entity.