Anyone wanna calculate some poker odds for me?

Question

I made it to the final 20 players in a tourney to win a seat into the WSOP. This guy had been stealing blinds left and right, he reraised preflop... (heres where i made my mistake) instead of just calling or reraising what i thought was a bluff i moved all in... and he called me.

I had A 8 and he called with 6 6.... the flop came up A 2 3 rainbow and boy was i relieved. I WOULD have been 2nd in chip and a shoe in to win a seat BUT he hit runner runner. The turn was a 4 and the river was a 5....

what are the odds that he could have won that hand?....he had 2 outs to hit a 6 and by the rule of four.... 4 times 2 outs tells me he had a 8% chance of beating me by making a set. but that doesn't take into account the chances that he could have hit runner runnner which gave him 8 more outs but he would have had to hit two of them in a row....

so what were the odds?

Answer 1

It does not matter how many other players there were since you have not seen their cards. All that matters is there are 45 unseen cards.

The probability that he will not get at least one six after the flop is (43 / 45) x (42 / 44) = 0.9121

That makes the probability that he will get at least one six = 1.0 - 0.9121 = 8.79%

The probability that he will get a 4 and a 5 is

(8 / 45) x (4 / 44) = 0.0162 = 1.62%

(The previous answer was incorrect. On the turn either a 4 or a 5 is ok, and there are four of each unseen, so it should be 8 / 45 instead of 4 / 45.)

That makes the odds that he would beat a pair of aces 10.41%, but his odds of winning the hand are slightly lower than that since the last two cards could have been a six and an ace.

Answer 2

I've never been good with odds, but I'm sorry to hear that. :( That seems like one of those situations that makes you stop and think, "geez, that WOULD happen to me..."

Better luck next time, though! :)

Answer 3

depends on the number of people in the hand...

if you were heads up;

odds% = (4 / 45) x (4 /44) x 100%

= 0.8%

for each additional player, subtract 2 from the 45 and 44, which still gives roughly 1% chance of hitting the straight.  Better odds for you if others had folded any 4 or 5 to reduce the odds even more.

Good luck next time.

odds are based on how it played...zman's answer is correct for making the straight either way with turn and river

Answer 4

This is all you ever need for Hold Em' odds:

http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_odds/tex...

He was at 10.4% after that flop.

Side note to your rant:  You seem to be focusing on the odds after the flop, but the important thing here is the odds preflop when the money actually went in.  He was actually a 56% favorite when he put his money in.  You said he had been raising and stealing blinds so I assume he had a fairly large stack.  To call him a "donk" for putting his money in as a favorite with a chance to eliminate a player is a gross mischaracterization.

Answer 5

now this isnt for the points its a comment:d**n you were pissed.

Answer 6

Well that's a tough way to lose, but sadly when calculating the chance of winning the hand, you must do so at the time when the money goes in.  The way you lost was odd, but is part of the total winning calculation.

Hand 0: 55.86% { 66 }

Hand 1: 43.76% { A8o }

After that flop, the chances are as follows:

Hand 0: 10.40% { 66 }

Hand 1: 89.60%  { A8o }

So when the money went in you were going to lose 55.86% of the time.  After the flop, you would win 89.60% of the time.  There are small discrepencies preflop because a small % of the time you would tie and I didn't include that percentage.