Arctic Cosmos rated at 121 for St Leger win
Arctic Cosmos will be rated as one of the best St Leger winners of the last 10 years by the official handicapper.
After Arctic Cosmos beat Midas Touch by one-and-three-quarter lengths there was something of a difference of opinion with the colt’s trainer, John Gosden, talking in terms of a run in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, at Churchill Downs in November, while part-owner Robin Geffin admitted to still harbouring the dream of a hurdling career.
However, according to Neil Young, the BHA handicapper responsible for the staying division, Gosden’s plan for a crack at the Turf, a race that Conduit won after taking the St Leger in 2008, would seem the correct option as he has provisionally rated Arctic Cosmos at 121, which is 1lb below Conduit at the corresponding point two years ago.
“Beforehand it looked pretty good,” Young said of this year’s St Leger field. “Normally a Leger winner would be putting up a performance in the region of 115-117 – maybe a little higher in a good year. But, going into the race on Saturday, we had three horses on 118 or higher which was Midas Touch, Snow Fairy and Rewilding. And, as it turned out, none of them won the race so I’m confident that it’ll turn out to be one of the better Legers and the figure that I’m going to is going to reflect that.”
When assessing the merits of a race a handicapper usually starts with a reliable yardstick to use as a framework around which to make the calculations. “I haven’t discussed the race with Gary O’Gorman, the Irish handicapper yet, but he rates Midas Touch on 118 and I think it’ll be a bit churlish to say that a horse who has run second in a Classic hasn’t run to his figure,” Young explained. “So, starting with Midas Touch at 118, would put Arctic Cosmos – on the bare figures at 120 – but giving the way that he was pulling away at the end and an extra pound wouldn’t be out of order. Corsica, who has improved to 118, looks a potential cup horse.”
Arctic Cosmos could well have the potential to progress further given the improvement he has shown since being beaten in a handicap just four months ago and the placing in both the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot and the Gordon Stakes at Glorious Goodwood prior to his St Leger victory, which closely follows the race profile of Conduit. “He was a horse who progressed through the handicaps – and famously won that handicap at Epsom where, in retrospect was the certainty of all time - and in the Leger I’ve Conduit running to 121-plus which I called 122 And Arctic Cosmos was beaten in a handicap at Newbury in May off 78, won on the all-weather at Kempton off 78 in June and since then we’ve got his running to 111 twice so he’s clearly a highly progressive horse.”
Young’s assessment of Arctic Cosmos puts him in between the likes of Rule Of Law (120) and Milan (125) in terms of the best St Leger performances and would have a chance against the current crop of middle-distance turf horses in America. “You’d have thought that Arctic Cosmos would go over there with a very good chance,” Young said.
One horse who will not be making the trip to Kentucky this year is Snow Fairy. The dual Oaks winner failed to last the trip in the St Leger, where she finished fourth. Her trainer, Ed Dunlop, is now planning to drop her to 10 furlongs for either the Prix de l'Opera at Longchamp on Arc day or the Emirates Airlines Champion Stakes at Newmarket a fortnight later.
Reflecting on Snow Fairy's run at Doncaster, Dunlop said on his website: “She was the last off the bridle, but at the end of the day she has probably not quite got home. She travelled so well through the race and two furlongs out she looked the winner, but if you don't try you don't find out and we gave it a go.
"I don't think dropping back in distance would be a problem, and, while she has come back fine, we will see how she is in a few days before making firm plans. All credit to the winner, who has produced a great performance, but I was really proud of our filly, and if Paris looks like coming too quick we will wait for Newmarket.
"However, we will definitely not be going for the Breeders Cup this year. I know we won the Filly & Mare Turf twice with Ouija Board, but that can wait until next year when it will still be at Churchill Downs. What better way to finish her career."
Another horse who may not be making the trip abroad is Sans Frontieres. Connections had been considering a crack at the Melbourne Cup after he won his first Group One race of his career in the Irish St Leger at the Curragh on Saturday. However they may be reconsidering that idea following the decision of Greg Carpenter, Racing Victoria's chief handicapper, to award a 2kg (4.4lb) penalty for that win.
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