Are Louisiana AGW sceptics going about business as normal tomorrow?

Question

Gustav is predicted to hit New Orleans - based on AGW logic, shouldn't people stay?

Life is based on predicting future outcomes (note the plural). It is one of the things that distinguishes humans from animals - the ability to make predictions beyond the immediate future and to make appropriate decisions based not just on the likelihood of the prediction but on the impact of the predicted event.

For example:

If we are 99% certain it will rain tomorrow, we may still not pack an umbrella because getting wet isn't such a big deal.

If we are 25% sure that company X is going to go bankrupt next week, we will probably sell our shares today.

If there is a 1 in 200 chance that the ice is not thick enough, we tell our kids not to skate on the lake.

Scientists predict (at the time of me writing) less than a 90% chance that Gustav will hit New Orleans and yet the Governor of Louisiana has declared an emergency, Britons are told to leave the city and the mayor has imposed a curfew:

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/US/weather/08/27/gustav.nola/index.html

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/7590904.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7590426.stm

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/US/weather/08/27/gustav.nola/index.html

Scientists - not Al Gore, et al - from around the world - not just the USA - have said there is a 90% chance that humans are causing GW that will drastically affect all life on this planet and potentially (yes, low likelihood but high impact) cause the death of billions (note, not millions).

So, are there any AGW sceptics out there in New Orleans & Louisiana? Are you going to go about your normal business - no evacuation, no shattering of windows, no emergency rations, drive off calmly to work as usual... after all, it's just a prediction...

Answer 1

Billions of deaths ??? The  way I see it , warming over the last 150 years has resulted in humanities largest population increase . Not a massive die off .    

Answer 2

Over 30,000 scientists have signed a petition insisting man is not the cause of the warming cycle that began at the end of the last Ice Age, 18,000 years ago.

It is politicians who have a 'consensus' that man is the cause, thereby justifying carbon taxes to seize wealth.  Scientists disagree very strongly on this issue.

But then, your suggestion that someone doubting the validity of one prediction should also doubt the validity of another, thereby remaining in a storm's path, is also not scientifically sound.  It is false logic.

Answer 3

Whether or not what is technically the storm will hit land, there will be high winds and torrential downpours, with 100% certainty.

In other words your analogy is just a WEE bit off.

Answer 4

Um, as a matter of fact, after Katrina, the state of LA has made better preperations for the hurricane, "just in case". They have had mandotory evalcuations since last Sat. and now they have arrest warrants out for the people who decide to stay, and if they come out of their house.

Answer 5

So now we decide science by consensus?  Either it is or it isn't.  It doesn't get decided by a bunch of scientists.    

Answer 6

I wonder how many hurricanes are going to hit New Orleans like bowling balls before conservatives notice that something is up.

It used to be Florida that got all the big hurricanes, but even then Miami and Orland were never completely destroyed.

Answer 7

Probably. Denial is that way.

For the umpteenth time speakeasy, the 31,000 scientists were comprised of people who only needed a bachelors degree in a field related to a science discipline. Of the 31,000 "scientists" only 40 were climate scientists. This is the grand total of climate scientists these right wingers were able to come up with in over ten years of trying. The rest of the "scientists" were anything from dentists, medical doctors to metallurgists.

Get a clue!

Answer 8

You make a lot of good points, but you are making a false assumption.  Skeptics do not believe that there is a 90% or even a high probability that humans activity will cause catastrophic warming.

There are also scientists who are saying that human activity will not cause catastrophic warming.  I just happen to find the scientists who claim otherwise more credible.  You do not, and you are entitled to your opinion as I am to mine. (The reason have been repeated so often in the past, no need to repeat)

One thing that I find strange is that we keep hearing how scientific and public opinion all say that global warming is a concern.  But according to believers us tiny minority of skeptics hold so much political power that we are preventing measures from being taken to fight climate change.

Answer 9

There's very good evidence a hurricane is currently in the Gulf of Mexico.  Scientific evidence of MAN-MADE global warming is comparable to the photos of bigfoot circling the net.  You won't find me buying bigfoot repellent, either.