Are political polls reliable anymore?

Question

Think about it for a few minutes. The way the political, and most other, polls work is that the company conducting the survey pick about 1000 people's land line phone numbers and call them. They then take the responses to those calls and compute the results. If 500 of those people don't answer that call then they go with the remaining respondents only.

So now with the days of caller id, how many people see the call and don't answer? What age group(s) are likely to have caller id and use it?

Now with the days of cell phones, how many people don't have land lines? And what age group(s) would have a cell phone only?

So if you are anything like me, you probably said the younger groups to those questions. Your 20-30 somethings. Which party do the people in those age groups vote for more often?

So are they reliable anymore?

Answer 1

TO A POINT! AS MUCH AS THE WEATHER MAN I SUPPOSE!

Answer 2

What you wrote and the way the questions are asked makes polls meaningless. They're totally biased to the party the pollsters are being paid by to get the numbers the party wants.

Why people like to conform to what polls or a society thinks is just sheer lack of self confidence and esteem.

Answer 3

Since when were they ever reliable? Remember Dewey defeats Truman?

Answer 4

The poll I liked the best was the one after the 2004 General Election... the exit polls said Kerry had won!!!!!! But we all know what happened to those polls. I think Dems love polls & Republicans don't bother to answer them or mislead the pollster.  

Answer 5

Polls have always been good to give you an idea of the public opinion for the moment they were polled.

It's like a 50/50 chance of rain.

Answer 6

Yes Political polls are useless.  The margin of error is much higher than the companies are willing to accept. Plus polls are designed to get the answer the that the poll taker is looking for. Scientifically polls are useless.  Political polls tend to leave out a large number of people that are allowed to vote, but do so as absentee due to either military service, or working outside the U.S.  The same goes for political maps, too many left out of the equation, and the margin of error is larger than admitted.

Answer 7

Remember this; always lie to pollsters.