Are vineyards in England a good proxy for global temperatures?

Question

An skeptical argument that crops (pardon the pun) up every so often is that because they grew grapes in England during the Midieval Warm Period, that means the planet was warmer back then than it is now.

Of course, there are a huge number of problems with this argument. The biggest one is that at most, vineyards in England are a proxy for temperatures in England, not the planet as a whole. Then you have to to take into account the fact that viticulture practices have changed over time.

Gavin Schmidt at RealClimate concludes thusly:

"...one can conclude that those who are using the medieval English vineyards as a 'counter-proof' to the idea of present day global warming are just blowing smoke (or possibly drinking too much Californian). If they are a good proxy, then England is warmer now, and if they are not….well, why talk about them in this context at all?"

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/07/medieval-warmth-and-english-wine/

What are your thoughts?

Answer 1

One big flaw with the skeptics argument: we have grapes growing in our garden and are in England. Grapes have been grown in England for centuaries, they are also grown grapes in Germany in areas that get colder then here. (In fact in germany they produce 'eiswein', a type of wine made useing grapes that have frozen because of the cold).

(im not an alcoholic)

So the past existance of english vineyards doesnt prove anything really. Except that the french are better at marketing their wine

Answer 2

No. With GW, ice melts in Greenland, disrupting the Gulf Stream, lowering temperature in Northern Europe. Therefore GW is actually compatible with lowering temperatures in Europe (and therefore in England).

Answer 3

You could say so.  Great Britain hasn't had large vineyards since the dark ages.  That was the last time there was a rise in global temperature.

Answer 4

Do you trust someone named "Gavin" from Realclimate.org? How sad is that?

Wine from England sucks, btw.

edit: I checked your link. His fireworks displays are impressive, I agree.

Thanks Dana.

Answer 5

It is just one piece of evidence.  Like ALL proxies, they just measure one area of the globe.

As an example of the complete insanity in AGW, tree rings from a few trees in a few places are sufficient to create a completely valid proxy of temperatures, but settlements in Greenland and wine in Northern England is dismissed because it is just one small geographical area.

So all the "huge number of problems" with using wine in England applies to all proxy measurements.

Every theory has some loose ends not explainable by the theory.  If AGW left it at that, and aknowledged them, it would provide a lot more credibility to AGW.

Instead the AGW zealots gloss over, cover up, beat people down, and generally are offended by anyone and any evidence that doesn't fit the theory perfectly.

The leap from "we have a lot of imprecise data with uncertainties, CO2 might be an issue, consequences can range from nothing to end of the world" somehow becomes definite conclusions that mankind is bad and we have to destroy our economies to save ourselves.

Keep asking your rhetorical questions.  Just prefacing with "skeptical" indicates  your bias from the get go and lack of interest in the actual data.

Answer 6

No.

Vineyards are anecdotal evidence and England is really just one tiny little corner of the entire Earth. England had vineyards then and vineyards now[1].  According to Dr. Gavin Schmidt (your source), England currently has 400+ vineyards and they cover a much more extensive area today than during the middle ages.

Here, however, is an interesting tangent. An ancient Roman fort named Vindolanda sits next to Hadrian's Wall in Northern England. Vindolanda is famous because, during excavations, spectacular wooden writing tablets where found with messages written in ink. Well, to make a long story short, it appears that wealthy Romans imported their wine from Gaul. So grapes and wine might well have been grown and produced in England during the past, but this does not necessarily mean it was good wine. What does this say about the climate?

Answer 7

And now the grapes of wrath are sown.  Why the pouting about grapes in England?  Why is this necessarily bad. Are you so wedded to the current climate that a little extra warmth necessarily is gloom and doom.  I know, I know.  It is happening to fast.  It has never happened before. Yada yada yada.

Answer 8

no, if you do you would have to take into account the River Thames frost fairs even though London bridge slowed the flow of the river allowing it to freeze.

Answer 9

It's a completely bogus argument to suggest that vineyards in England prove it was warmer in the past for the following reasons:

1) England is a very small geographic region and in no way could be considered representative of the global climate

2) Vineyards come and go do to factors other than climate (e.g. economics, times of war, trading partners, etc.)

3) Vineyards are a healthy industry in England right now (and doubters assertions that's only because of breeding practices are baseless)

Answer 10

Haven't you heard about the new science, "paleoviticology"?

If current science isn't adequate, make some up!

Answer 11

I wouldn't think it's a good indicator other then that region and the types of grapes being grown.

Answer 12

The grapes being grown in generally colder Northern Britain, as well as Vikings farming on Greenland due to glacial retreat, are both indicators.  For an understanding of the Earth's climate cycles, check out this link:

Answer 13

The higher temperatures in England during the MWP correlate nicely with data obtained from the Vostok Ice core.  One can argue that if temperatures were warm enough to grow grapes in England at that time and you have ice core data to back it up, the planet as a whole was in a mini-warm age.  Also, another answerer mentioned that the Romans imported their wine from Gaul...that mini-warm age also appears on the Vostok ice core chart.  Please straighten your friends out at RealClimate.  One of the biggest problems you have, as an AGW supporter, is that you CANNOT account for any climate change, anthropogenic or natural, period!  That is a FACT!!!  

http://www.socialtext.net/wired-mag/inde...

Answer 14

Vineyards in England are just a small part of the picture. Here is a link to many studies conducted all over the world by scientist from all over the world, that concludes the MWP was warmer than present and worldwide:

http://www.co2science.org/scripts/CO2Sci...