Are you concerned about peak oil?

Question

Are you concerned about peak oil?

Answer 1

Yes.

Oil is a limited resource. we have a limited resources.

We have (if my figures are correct, they are coming from the IEA and USGS) :

- Conventional oil : Already produced around 1 trillions bbls - Remaining around 1.5-2.2 trillions bbls

- Unconventional oil (oil shales, tar sands) : almost none produced - Remaining around 1 trillions bbls.

Peak oil is not exhausting this resource but when the offer will not be able to coop with the demand.

For each barrel of oil produced, the oil companies needs to find additional reserves. If it cannot be done, the company, the country or the world has reached its peak oil/gas/coal etc... Production cannot anymore increase but will plateau and then decrease.

Many countries have already reached peak oil, USA in the 70's, Canada few year later (at least for conventional oil), Indonesia and Gabon in the 90's, Norway in 2001 etc...

So the question is not IF but WHEN and HOW.

I can start by the "when", I think it will happen very soon, in 5 to 10 years maximum but maybe it is starting to happen now.

How ?

I want you to look at HOW we are getting our energy NOW in 2008 :

37% comes from oil

25% from coal

23 % from gas

6% from nuclear

4 % from biomass (mainly woods burned in 3rd world country, no confusion with biofuel like ethanol or biodiesel)

3.2% from hydroelectric power

Remaining 1 point something % are coming from solar heat (0.5%), wind (0.3%), geothermal (0.2%), biofuel (0.2%), solar electricity (0.05%) and others.

So the situation is that we are using very predominantly fossils fuels. So to move from this situation to renewable energy means a very major and costly technology shift. Phase out cars, power plants, airplanes and all the factories attached to building these items. I know it could be nice to have a clean world but the economic constraints are here.

In addition, I think it is a very good strategy from those who wants to keep the things as it is. WHY ? Because in addition of what we are consuming, we should look at what we are WASTING.

And this is where it is getting frightful : 45% of the energy is wasted or rather could have been saved !!!

How ? By putting 4 persons in the car instead of 1 or 2 : look at the window and observe the cars, there is barely 1 or 2 persons inside.

By using proper cable to avoid electricity loss. By isolating the house to avoid heat or cold to enter. By using proper bulbs.etc.......

Presently, the technology advance helps us to save about 2% additional of energy every year. But we are despite of this increasing our energy consumption of 2-4 % depending on the years.

Why ? because the new consumers like China and India are not using advance technology and thus are wasting a lot of energy. This applies as well to Canada, USA and Australia which are very big consumers per capita.

So based on this assessment of the present situation, what could be the future ? I think we can put 5 bullets that will probably be sure :

- Cost of oil will not significantly decrease and will probably significantly increase, pushing developed countries to review their consuming habits. We will be more cautious, use cleaner technology and optimize the use of energy.

- The depletion of the oil reserves will probably bring unrest and random periods of scarcity. Just remember if you are old enough, the first oil shock in 1975, when roads in Europe were deserted. There will be probably also period of brown out if not provisional black out in developed countries.

- There will be a little increase in renewable energies but I do not think it will be so significant. If renewable energy is passing the 10% in 2040, I will be very happy. The reason I am pretty pessimistic is because of the cost implications and the inertia to move the industrial machine.

- Travel will become more and more costly. It means people will travel for business, for fighting and for running away from fight. It is already the case. There are presently 850 millions tourists and 50 millions people displaced by war or refugees, a ratio of 17. I can bet the tendency will be a relative decrease of this ratio not because wars will be increasing but because tourism will increase more slowly. Instead, communications will develop and people will tend to make remote conferences, work at home, use computer and virtual reality for escaping and relaxing. I don't judge, I just deduct.

- When you organize a party and you invite 8 people, you will ask for a cake for 10 people and 7 additional people are coming, there are 2 possibilities : either you cut 8 big portions, and give the original guest and share the remaining of the cake with the 7. Or you make smaller portions for everybody. Or more probably, you choose a solution between the 2... The 7 additional people are the emerging countries like China, India, Brazil, Thailand etc... I think the oil (and later the gas) depleted resources will slow down their development. But there will as well be a transfer of wealth toward the developed countries which will become probably a bit poorer. I think by the way it is already partially happening.

In summary : people more cautious, some limited new technology, no real utopia world, unrests and blackouts, less travels, more internet, less wealth for the riches, a bit less hope for the poors, a more equal world, at least more equal in suffering.

Voila, this was pretty long but the situation is pretty complex as was the question. Apologize my english, I am french.

I hope I did not make you too depress, this is not a very very bright future I am describing.

Answer 2

no if i wasnt able to get to work i would be sooo happy, but perhaps i should buy a bike?,hmmmm

Answer 3

im not sure waht you mean about "peak" but if you mean price yes. and if you mean the shotages then........... yes again.

Answer 4

Nope.  It has been predicted since useful oil was discovered.  Any argument for current peak oil relies more on our unwillingness to go get it than any actual shortage of supply.