As Westwood and Kaymer loom, is Tiger's number up?
A European golfer will officially be recognised as the greatest player in the world at the end of this week, as Tiger Woods will concede the world No. 1 ranking to either Lee Westwood or Martin Kaymer.
Though Woods has been been in this position before, the fear is that the player who has dominated golf for the last decade and a half may never again reproduce the standard of play that saw him top the rankings for an unprecedented 281 weeks during his most recent stint.
In the past 15 years, Woods' time at the top has been punctuated by fallow periods, as dips in form or problems with injuries have hindered his efforts. But in recent years, Woods has seemed untouchable. Remarkably, his dominance in the last five years has been such that even when forced to stay away from the game for eight months because of a knee injury, Woods was still so far ahead of his rivals on points that nobody could topple him.
That prolonged stay at the top, even in Woods' absence, owes something to the workings of the rankings system, which calculate a player's position on his performance over a two-year period - the only reason Woods has maintained his position at the top as long as he has this season.
Though the 34-year-old was a factor in two of this year's majors, finishing in fourth place at both the Masters and the US Open, elsewhere Woods' play has ranged from the disappointing to the disastrous, with missed cuts, withdrawals, and the worst ever performance of the player's career at the Bridgestone Invitational - a tournament that Woods had previously won on seven occasions.
In short, Woods has played like a journeyman for long spells this year. The fact that he appeared to be approaching his old indomitable best during his last round at the Ryder Cup must be encouraging for the man, but it's not like Woods hasn't had other decent rounds this year; it's the consistency, the iron will to grind out victory over four rounds that appears to have deserted the man.
Still, with a new coach in Sean Foley, perhaps Woods can reinvent his swing once more; he has already successfully changed his swing once, when he employed Hank Haney in 2004 following a disagreement with Butch Harmon. Haney's time with Woods coincided with the golfer's recent spell at the top of the world rankings, before the 55-year-old opted to end his working relationship with Woods in May.
On Sunday, if Martin Kaymer wins or finishes second at the Valderrama Masters, he will become the new No. 1. If the gifted young German can't manage that, England's Lee Westwood will ascend to the top spot, despite the fact he's not even playing. Either way, Tiger will be toppled.
At least for a week. Woods is back in action in the following week, at the WGC-HSBC Champions, in China. If the 14-time major winner can accommodate his recent swing changes to stage a timely first win of the season, the new European world No. 1's stay at the top could be a very short one indeed.
Based on his past performances in 2010, however, it's just as likely that Woods could be bidding his status as the world's greatest golfer a permanent farewell.
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