Awzaan can win the 2000 Guineas
An unbeaten colt, with Group One form, a solid pedigree in terms of stamina and all the potential to improve for his three-year-old season. Sound familiar?
However, while St Nicholas Abbey may be all the rage in the markets for the stanjames.com 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, it could be Awzaan who gives Mark Johnston his second winner in the race, following on from Mister Baileys in 1994.
St Nicholas Abbey has some impressive credentials but both his performance in the Racing Post Trophy last season and his breeding suggest that his future lays over middle distances. His victory at Doncaster was visually impressive but the time was nothing exceptional, because of the moderate early pace, and it may be that St Nicholas Abbey beat a decent bunch of middle-distance types for a bit of speed.
Aidan O’Brien has won the Guineas five times before and all of those were having their first run of the season, so that should not be a problem. He has also won the race when the overall performance of his yard has been below par, but, aside from issues over whether St Nicholas Abbey has the pace for a fast-run mile, there also has to be a doubt if he can produce his best form on what – despite rain – may well be faster ground than any he encountered in his three wins last season.
By comparison Awzaan has a profile that strongly suggests that the Guineas could be tailor-made for him. He capped an impressive juvenile campaign by winning the Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket last October. He showed then that he could handle the contours of the track and that form looks rock-solid.
He had Radiohead, the winner of the Norfolk Stakes, three-quarters of a length behind and also accounted for Showcasing, the Gimcrack Stakes winner, Poet's Voice, the Champagne Stakes winner and Arctic who had previously won a Group Three race at the Curragh.
Aside from the form it was the manner of victory that struck a chord. He won the race with a burst of speed coming out of the Dip, a classic way to win the Guineas, and his breeding gives every encouragement for him lasting a mile at least. His sire, Alhaarth, fourth in the 2000 Guineas, won over 10 furlongs while his dam, Nufoos, won a listed race over seven furlongs.
The form horse from this season is Elusive Pimpernel who was three-and-three-quarter lengths second to St Nicholas Abbey, with Al Zir another two-and-a-half lengths away in third. Elusive Pimpernel was an impressive four-length winner of the Craven Stakes at Newmarket this month; perhaps too impressive. His surge through the final furlong ended with him clocking a time that was more than two seconds faster than the Wood Ditton Stakes, run on the same card, but there could be a question mark over whether he can reproduce that level of effort just 16 days later.
Red Jazz did well to win the Free Handicap, over seven furlongs, at Newmarket the day before the Craven. However, he appeared to benefit from a canny front-running ride, that allowed him to claim a soft lead, and appeared all out to hold on in the final furlong, with Audacity Of Hope beaten three-and-a-half lengths in fourth. That performance gave little evidence that he could dominate a field of this quality in the same manner and no Free Handicap winner has gone on to win the 2000 Guineas since Mystiko in 1991.
Two other market principals who have run this season are stable companions Canford Cliffs and d**k Turpin. Richard Hannon elected to run both in the Greenham Stakes, which d**k Turpin won by a half-length after Canford Cliffs drifted left from centre track in the final furlong. Canford Cliffs looked high class when beating Xtension by six lengths in Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot, but his stamina appears suspect while d**k Turpin may not be up to this class.
The class of last season’s Dewhurst Stakes was cast into doubt almost as soon as the field passed the post. Fencing Master was a neck second, with Xtension a nose away in third and followed by Buzzword (fifth) and d**k Turpin (sixth). Fencing Master was having only the second run of his life and will improve but Xtension is often overlooked and could be one for a place, judged on his victory in the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood last August.
Inler has been backed on the strength of a maiden win at Newmarket last autumn but his trainer, John Best who also runs Elspeth's Boy, does not look to be in the best of form this month and both Makfi and Hearts Of Fire may have better chances.
Those looking for lively outsider could do worse than consider the claims of Fair Trade, who won his maiden at Newbury two weeks ago. David Elsworth does not usually harbour angels unawares and has made frame with Norse Dancer and Stubs Art (both 100-1) in the last seven years.
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