BIG-BROWN......Will he win the Triple Crown...? if not who will beat him at Belmont....?

Question

BIG-BROWN......Will he win the Triple Crown...? if not who will beat him at Belmont....?

Answer 1

possibly, but as a betting man I will let it ride on Casino Drive

Answer 2

some people are so naive! big brown this, big brown that! big brown will win everything, big brown will be the first horse on the moon!

sure ill admit he's a good horse, but he's not the champion everyone makes out, champions win races preparation after preparation, season after season, he is still in his 1st preparation, Wait until he comes back as a 3yo and 4yo and wins races with such dominance, then the tag champion may be used!

as for the triple crown and Belmont? big brown has had a lot of racing in a short time, the effects of this racing may affect him at Belmont, casino prince who is a likely starter in the Belmont will be a lot fresher as he's only had 2 starts that have been reasonably spaced out, and i think he will reap the benefits from being the fresher horse!

so put your house on casino drive in the Belmont, and you will be sure to win enough money to buy a second house!

Answer 3

I have to give it to Big Brown...



You might here some people talk about a horse named Casino Drive in the media and on the blogs but don't be fooled. He simply can't win against Big Brown unless Kent Desormeaux falls off the horse.

I was quite impressed with Casino Drive's Peter Pan victory and yes the Japanees import does have superior breeding gearing him for a winning result at the Belmont Stakes but he has alot working against him too.

1) "Casino Drive has only 2 races..."

It's not Casino's actual racing experience that is a area of concern. He split horses coming home in the Peter Pan. It was a very veteran like move.

I would worry more about the maximum crowd capacity that we are going to see at Belmont in 3 weeks.

The cheering and noise can negatively affect horses the first time they encounter a tripple crown race. It can stress them out a little before the race and spook them during it. Big Brown has delt with the giant crowds twice and Casino Drive has not.

  

2) "Common foes and the Contrast to the beatings that were handed out to them"

I'm talking about Mint Lane and Icabad Crane...

Now Mint Lane is just as fast as Icabad is. He only lost by a head to him in a stakes race back on April 19th.



Mint Lane faced Casino Drive in the Peter Pan stakes and Mint Lane ran a GOOD RACE.

Icabad Crane faced Big Brown in the Preakness and Icabad Crane ran a GOOD RACE.

I stress "GOOD RACE" because there are other horses that fall into this category too, but they threw in klunkers at the Peter Pan and Preakness and you want to compare and contrast with horses running in good form when handicapping.

Icabad's loss to Big Brown was by 6 lengths...

Mint Lane's loss to Casino Drive was by 6 Lengths as well...

So whats the big deal they are equal right...

No... go to these URLS and watch the race replays and notice the difference in how Jockey Kent Desormeaux has to ride Big Brown and Casino Drive. (Yes, he rode both horses)

http://sports.espn.go.com/broadband/vide...

http://sports.espn.go.com/broadband/vide...

Kent is hitting Casino Drive with the whip  to win the Peter Pan but he is only urging Big Brown at the Preakness and he is looking between his legs for any threats but there were'nt any coming to challenge him.

Kent even stops urging Big Brown well before the finishline. He could have won by alot more.

3) "The recent history of the tripple crown won't repeat itself..."

We saw Smarty Jones (too wound up and couldn't settle), Funny Cide (beaten by an old well rested Derby rival who skipped the preakness), War Emblem (stumbled), Charasmatic (injured and pulled up after the wire), Real Quiet (went to early and was caught by closer) & Silver Charm who who's view was blocked by  another horse and couldn't see a surging Touch Gold coming to pass him.

  

It's not going to be a bunch of fresh horses against a fatigued tripple Crown hopeful this time.

Sure Casino drive and other horses in the field will be fresh but this years tripple crown hopeful Big Brown will not be fatigued. This willnot be his when trying to run a 3rd grueling race in just 5 weeks time.

Even though It will be his 3rd race, the Preakness wasn't really a race...  it was a light work out.

We are going to have a fit & ready Big Brown against a fit & ready Casino Drive and Casino Drive should only have a chance against a tired worn out Big Brown...

We've waited 30 years for this, so enjoy it... It might happen for another 30.

Answer 4

I think Big Brown will win the Triple Crown. The only other horse that I think can give him a challenge is Casino Drive. Casino Drive was amazing in the Peter Pan Stakes, but that was only 1 1/8 miles. Big Brown has already won over 1 1/4 miles.

Answer 5

Big Brown is a freak.  As one of the other jockeys in the Preakness said...he's a monster.  Will he win?  Probably.  But anything can happen.  Maybe he'll run out of gas for the distance, although it sure doesn't look like it.  It's just too bad he won't be back for a four year old season.  Imagine what he could do with another year's maturity....  I still don't think there's any danger of Secretariat's 2:24 for the Belmont falling.....

Edit...Ummmm...semi_con....Big Brown IS a 3 year old.  So we don't have to wait for him to "come back as a 3 year old".  Now, I do think it's  a shame he won't be back for a four year old season.

Answer 6

Well there might a good horse lurking in The Far east......by the name of CASINO DRIVE..been pointing to this race hasn't been in last 2 races..rested well...The BELMONT is the big one and horses have gone by the wayside there.  Distance big factor and THE BROWN is a great horse not a good horse..last two races you notice he was pulling away so distance won't be a problem with this great EQUINE..in fact jockey never used his whip...just let BROWN run on his own. The DAM of Casino BETTER THAN HONOUR, produced the last two BELMONT winners (JAZZ and filly RAGS TO RICHES)  KENT DESORMEAUX BROWN'S jockey had the mount on CASINO DRIVE. He stated "He's phenomenal talent, and we've got our hand full with this one".   Casino's wins have been impressive...might be EXT play with these two.

Good LUCK!

Frank Kekes

Answer 7

First it's been 30 years since the last triple crown winner in 1978.  That was Affirmed and Seattle Slew won the year before that.

Now I do believe Big Brown has the heart and will of a champion, he never seems tired after a race, and has energy to spare, he seems like an "old school" thoroughbred the ones who were bred to run long distances.  I hope he wins the Belmont for the triple crown.  He seems like the horse that will break this 30 year hiatis of a triple crown champion.

Answer 8

You know, over the years there's been a few potential triple crown winners, but they've all failed. I think the last horse to win it was twelve years ago. But this year I belive that big brown can do it. For the past two races he's won by quite a bit, especially the last race (preakness). I don't think this horse can be stopped.

Answer 9

B.B. is going to love a mile and a half...this will be his race...15 length victory!

Answer 10

The field of entrants has not been determined yet but it is assumed Casino Drive will compete. In a hypothetical matchup between Big Brown and Casino Drive I looked at their performance in races of equal distance on similar surface tracks. Casino Drive has not competed beyond 9 furlongs and since the only race of "equal distance on similar surface tracks" that Casino Drive has run which can be used for a hypothetical matchup is the May 10th 9 furlongs on dirt in a time of 1:47.87 to win the Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park, I compared that to Big Brown's 9 furlongs on dirt in a time of 1:48.16 to win the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park, a finishing time difference of 0.29 between the two in 9 furlongs on similar surface, or 29/100s of a second favoring Casino Drive. But again, Casino Drive has not been tested in a race beyond 9 furlongs. Big Brown has been tested to 10 furlongs at the Kentucky Derby with a phenomenal finish. Casino Drive demonstrated a phenomenal finish in 9 furlongs with reserve capacity and stamina to go longer and Big Brown demonstrated a phenomenal finish in 10 furlongs with reserve capacity and stamina to go longer. The Belmont Stakes is 12 furlongs. I think the race is going to be between Big Brown and Casino Drive from the 10th furlong to the wire in a phenomenal competition of lung capacity and stamina. If I had only my boots to bet, I would bet them on Big Brown. But if I had a dollar too, I would bet the dollar on Casino Drive. That is if I could find an off-track bookie who will take boots and $1 bets!

Answer 11

I think Big Brown has what it takes to win the whole thing.  If you watched the Preakness, you probably noticed that he just galloped at the end, and was still wanting to run when they were interviewing the jockey.  He will have some competition, but that might be good for him.

Answer 12

Big Brown is a refreshing phenom.  Watching numerous races over a span of time offers an opportunity to observe good, better, and best.  

Occasionally there comes an exceptional talent.  For some Big Brown is a once in a lifetime experience.  Rarer still is the occasion to compare greatness to greatness.  

Remembering old timers speak in excited reverence of Man O War while witnessing the brilliant racing displays of Secretariat, provides a golden yardstick for comparison.  Big Brown could to be a reincarnation of Nearco.

It is a challenge to compare Triple Crown Winners to other Triple Crown Winners.  Comparing brilliance to brilliance requires going beyond the Triple Crown to compare excellence to excellence.

Big Brown is a formidable entrant in the 2008 Belmont Stakes.  Challengers will test the ability to carry 126 pounds over One and One Half Miles and finish first.  For a champion also rans will be foot notes.

Answer 13

We haven't had a triple crown for such a long time, i don't know why he won't win. The triple crown will be right in front of his face soon, and he deserves it. He won the first race of the Preakness by 5 3/4 lengths, which is pretty amazing. He is an extremely powerful and smart horse, i just can't see how he can loose at belmont.