Baseball Betting strategies for MLB Runlines.

Question

Placing a Runlines bet on mlb baseball betting events, has always been an ardous taskl for a novice baseball bettor. Can you help me know, of some good Baseball Betting strategies for MLB Runlines betting.

Answer 1

While the last issue of the Pinnacle Pulse introduced the basics of runline betting strategies in Major League Baseball, this week we will focus on tactical considerations when betting baseball, and the potential benefit of Alternate Runlines at PinnacleSports.com.

Most books consider Alternate Runlines a proposition bet rather than a true line on the game. This means they will charge even more juice than they would charge on a normal line. They also charge a lot more for lines that have large favorites.

When you can bet on Johan Santana and the Twins +1.5 -500 or against him at -1.5 +350, it's doubtful if either side has any value. In contrast, PinnacleSports.com's Alternate line is far more competitive, typically offering the best odds on both sides. Using the Santana example, it might typically equate to +1.5 -440 / -1.5 +400. This can make the crucial difference between profit and loss, but bettors still need to find the right side of the Alternate Runline to bet.

Choosing the Correct Side
Using PinnacleSports.com's unique low commission pricing model, Alternate Runlines will frequently offer more value than either the moneyline or the normal runline price. Since it is very hard to handicap the difference between -440 and -400, even our more mathematical players will often disagree on which side has value. In addition, Alternate Runlines can allow you to get a strong number - sometimes even for a game where you don't like either team - as they are often based on an earlier price for the moneyline and total. PinnacleSports.com deal the alternate runline for $3,000, so most players can place their normal wager size using one bet on this line alone.

Choosing between Moneylines, Runlines, and Alternate Runlines
With three viable betting options, which one should you choose to bet on a team you like? Firstly, it is vital to get a sense of what the relative prices should be by looking at a variety of lines to help build up a chart of prices you consider fair. Once you like a team, you can look at the chart to see if either line is cheaper than expected. If one of them is, it allows you to get a better number than the moneyline. It is scary how powerful this can be when combined with line shopping.

There are sharps that specialize in picking off soft runline numbers that arbitrage players can't touch. Sometimes they hedge these bets with moneyline wagers, but the sharpest players ride their bets out, rather than pay the unnecessary juice of the second hedging bet.

Steam Chasing
Runlines also offer a prime opportunity for steam chasing. Sportsbooks that are slow adjusting their moneylines when there are significant moves - presenting real value or scalping opportunities - are even slower adjusting runlines. Most of the time the higher juice they charge allows them to get away with it, but bettors can catch books 'leaning'. They are dealing a number designed to get the action they want from their own players, so when they offer a number inside the 'Pinnacle range' a power move on the game can lead to good value or even a scalp before they realize what is going on.

This tactic can also operate in reverse, and you can take the value books like PinnacleSports.com offer when a game has an abnormal betting pattern. Sometimes a bettor or syndicate will bet the runline or moneyline but not both. This will lead to numbers between the moneyline and the run line that no longer agree with one another. Close to game time, books targeting recreational players will often be forced to overcharge for the public side so much to balance their books, that they unwittingly create scalping opportunities for astute players at PinnacleSports.com. These unique numbers will pop up surprisingly often, but will disappear very quickly if you are slow to react.

The 'Forced Bet' Scenario
These fluctuations in odds can even lead to what some sharps consider a 'forced bet' situation. For example, if a road team is available at +121 and the home team -119, you would doubtless bet, even if you could not bet on both sides. The juice now works in your favor and you get the team that you like. The choice of team could even be decided by a coin flip, the only question is how much of your bankroll you want to risk?

When a runline creates the equivalent situation, you now have the advantage normally given to the book. If you bet both sides, you could bet on the middle or against it, pocketing some value, or you could choose the side you like more. It costs time and effort to be sharp enough to notice these situations and watch for them, but once you've made that investment, it's vital that you capitalize on it.

When the lines are roughly equal, the best way to choose the right line to play is to consider your own game model. Why do you like this team? If they have strong pitching and defense or they have a poor offense, then that points to a low total, so you should look to take the +1.5 and lay the juice if necessary. If you think the opposite, that the team has a strong offense or weak pitching and defense, then that points to a higher total. Look to lay -1.5 and take the favourable odds.

Pay Attention to Variance
Variance is also an important factor as most blowouts result from the breakdown of a pitcher or one who pitches a gem. Unpredictable quantities like Carlos Zambrano or unknown call-ups from the minors are strong candidates for laying -1.5 on either team. These are clearly strong reasons to prefer one line to another. Issues of bullpen strength, or whether teams 'know how to win close games' or hit in the clutch can also be considered, but some of the smartest people in the game tend to consider these to be mostly mythical concerns. In short, don't get excited by a team's record in one run games. This is not a predictive statistic.

No Shame in Losing on a Long Shot
One objection bettors frequently have to runlines is that they don't like long odds. Laying -500 doesn't make you feel that good when you win, whereas losing feels terrible. Winning a +500 feels great, but most of the time you lose even when you got value - and if your team wins by 1 and you still lose, then you feel like an idiot. As with all betting, you need to balance these considerations against getting the best value. Some bettors like to think of a long shot as a parlay, betting both that it won't be a one run game and that your team will win. Others have simply made their peace with it, accepting that there is no shame in losing such a bet.

Bet Size & Record Keeping
Playing at different odds also makes bet sizing and performance tracking more difficult. For record keeping, make sure to compare to a break-even point rather than to 50%, 51.1% or 52.2%. Many sharps betting baseball lose far more bets than they win and come out ahead. In terms of bet sizing, the mathematically correct strategy is to think in terms of the amount you're trying to win to determine your bet size, rather than the amount risked or the base amount of the wager. However, it is always good to remember that the mathematical answer might not always be right for you.

Of course, there are sometimes even stronger ways to pinpoint what you're wagering on, and the next two weeks we'll cover those. However, if after reading all of this, you are still uncomfortable betting runlines, there is no shame in sticking with the moneyline by playing at a low juice sportsbook like PinnacleSports.com and enjoying the simple pleasure of rooting for a team to win.