Believers: how many years have to pass with 1998 as the warmest on record before you have doubts?

Question

Believers: how many years have to pass with 1998 as the warmest on record before you have doubts?

Answer 1

Get your facts straight- the warmest year on record was in the 1930's.    

Answer 2

I personally don't care, but you have to watch where the high temperatures are. 1998 was the warmest where?

Answer 3

take the time to watch this please.

http://rightalk.com/

Answer 4

The rest of my life.

If we are in a warming phase, then it is likely that a recent year will have been the hottest on record. The fact that this ONE year happened last year, last decade or even last century has little relevance to the issue.

Now, if the ten years 1989-1998 were all hotter than the ten years 1999-2008, that would be a different issue.

Let's try a sporting analogy.

A football team wins their last 5 games: 2-1, 3-0, 1-0, 4-2, 10-0.

Then they win their next five: 5-1, 3-0, 4-0, 5-2, 6-1.

Because all of these are less than the 10-0 six games ago, does that mean they are on a losing streak? Does it mean that they are playing worse than ten games ago?

No and no.

Answer 5

Approximately 20, probably less.

http://tamino.files.wordpress.com/2008/0...

Are you willing to take the bet?

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2008/01/31/y...

Answer 6

For me - ten to exceed that single year record.

Now for you - how many hotter than '98 years will it take in the next ten years before you admit we have a problem?  

Answer 7

Yes, 1998 was a local peak, 1999 dropped a lot, and up to 2007 we were recovering, and have not yet matched 1998.

If we had 20 years of continuing lower temperature, we should assume that a long term trend has set in. But we do not have a continuing down trend. We have an up trend with a correction in 1999 and 2007.

Even if 1998 were to remain a maximum throughout 20 years, but the minimal year does not drop below  1999 levels, we would not be in a downward trend, but the upward trend would not be definitive.

Answer 8

This one has already been asked and answered.  Repeat questions are spam as far as I am concerned.

Answer 9

Actually, the warmest on record was back in the 30's....so the answer has to be more than 70 years.