Big Brown or Eight Belles??

Question

Throw in Colonel John for the trifecta?? Who do you like?

Answer 1

I think Eight belles may well be the controlling pace. I'm not too impressed with any of the other front runners. Colonel John may get second then look for a closer for third money ( I'm betting on Z Fortune or Cool Air).

Despite having post twenty, Big Brown may be vastly superior to everyone, so I'm using him one time (on top). If he can't secure a decent position early, he may get lost in the pack. Besides, any tri that leaves him out is going to pay big!

Answer 2

SOOOO SAAAAAAAADDDD what happened to her R.I.P.

Answer 3

Eight Belles is your best chance.

Answer 4

I like Eight Belles because of her better circumstances. She's coming out from a good post, with a lot of lifetime starts (and wins), and has performed better than most of the other horses in the field. Big Brown would get it done if the circumstances were similar (AKA No foot trouble, no bad post, more experience, etc.), but Eight Belles is just in a much better position to win the Derby.

Also, FWIW, Eight Belles should easily take the 10 furlongs with strong distance breeding and a very low DI. I would be very surprised if she tires to the distance.

Answer 5

Eight Belles has not faced a field of 10 or more, and for more than 40 years, every Derby winner has raced in a double digit field before the Derby.  She would also be the first filly to win the Derby without having raced against colts before.  So she's a toss in my book.  

Big Brown is breaking from post 20, and that post has never won from an actual starting gate, so he's another toss.  (1 horse won from post 20 in 1929 but that was in a walk up start.)

But those are only win horse predictions, those two might hit the board.

Answer 6

Big Brown . Colonel John to place. Maybe Eight Belles to show. There are only 3 horses  with good odds.

Answer 7

Eight Belles.  I also like Pyro, Colonel John, and Z Fortune.  I wouldn't play Big Brown to win.  The only concern about Eight Belles is that she hasn't gone farther than 8.5 furlongs.  But there's a lot of horses in this race who haven't won at 9 furlongs including Pyro and they're still getting good attention.

Answer 8

Eight Belles

Answer 9

eight bells! i bid on her, smooth air, monba, and gayego

Answer 10

Big Brown won. Eight Belles was put down. Broke both front ankles...