Blame improves but Harbinger still top of World Thoroughbred Rankings
Given the natural attention that Zenyatta gained for her valiant run when beaten just a head by Blame in the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Churchill Downs on Saturday it is easy to forget the winner.
However, the senior handicappers from around the world have the task of dealing with the facts alone and Blame’s head victory has been recognised with a 5lb rise in the rankings to 129, which makes him the highest-rated horse in North America while Zenyatta remains on her rating of 125 making her the joint-best filly or mare in the world along with Goldikova, who became the first horse to win a race at the Breeders’ Cup for three years in succession when she took the mile.
However, the best horse in the world, and by a margin of 6lbs, is Harbinger. His rating may have been pinned on just one performance but it looks unlikely that his stature will be diminished even after his retirement. Harbinger burst upon the international scene, when he beat a quality field in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth at Ascot by 11 lengths in a record time, it was hard to discredit the performance simply because of its magnitude.
The initial reaction of Phil Smith, the BHA’s head of handicapping, awarded Sir Michael Stoute’s colt a rating of 135. The official handicappers’ assessments only go back as far as the start of the international classifications in 1977 and the current handicappers do not like to rely on those early ratings too heavily for an historical prism through which to view what we see now. However, Smith, the BHA’s head of handicapping, concurred with the view that we had seen something special.
Putting Harbinger in the context of the international classifications Smith pointed out at the time: “Looking back you’ve got Montjeu 135, Peintre Celebre and Generous 137 and El Gran Senor 138. And if you go back you’ve got Alleged and Shergar on 140 and Dancing Brave on 141.”
The general view was that Harbinger would need to put up another performance of similar quality to maintain that rating but, just two weeks later, he suffered a career-ending leg injury.
That left Smith and the other international handicappers with something of a dilemma before they meet for the conference in Hong Kong in December for the conference at which the end-of-season ratings are decided. Smith described the King George as a “wow race” and seven years ago Hawk Wing won the Lockinge Stakes by 11 lengths, beating a quality field, but failed dismally in his sole subsequent run. Speaking at the time of Harbinger’s injury Smith said: “You can see similarities with that case. We’ll have to wait until we get to Hong Kong in December to disprove it.”
Although Harbinger’s rating was decided by Smith he had a strong guide as to what his colleagues made of the race at the time. “We have an interactive system where all of the international handicappers put a figure on the system and we can see what everybody thinks. And the figures varied from 134 to 137 - I was 135. So I've published 135 because it was my decision, but his ultimate rating will be decided in Hong Kong in December and it'll be fascinating debate. It was the consensus of everyone who put figures on the system that it was a storming performance.
“It’ll be interesting to see whether people backtrack or not. But I personally can't see any reason unless the second, third and fourth all run abysmally. If they decline then Harbinger would decline with them.”
It would be hard to point to much decline. Cape Blanco, the runner-up who is rated 127, went on to win the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown by five-and-a-half lengths before getting an unlucky run when running down the field in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp. That same fate befell third-placed Youmzain in the Arc but Workforce (128) – who ran well below form in the King George – to win the Arc by a head from Nakayama Festa (127).
Never worse than third in 13 starts, Blame’s performance in the Breeders’ Cup Classic is the best performance on a non-Turf surface in 2010 according to the World Thoroughbred Rankings, while So You Think (125) became the highest rated Australian-trained horse since the inception of the World Rankings in 2004 with his victories in three Group One races – the Yalumba Stakes, the Cox Plate and the Mackinnon Stakes.
However, even in his absence, the panel of international handicappers seem unlikely to be able to escape the conclusion that Harbinger is the best horse in the world for 2010.
And can you blame them?
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