Can Kelly Pavlik Make a Comeback?
Heading into his fight against Sergio Martinez on April 17, Kelly Pavlik was considered to be one of the elite middleweight boxers in the world. He held the WBC and WBO middleweight crowns and had never lost at that weight. His only career loss came in 2008 when he moved up to light heavyweight to challenge Bernard Hopkins and dropped a one-sided unanimous decision.
However, things went very wrong for Pavlik against Martinez. Despite coming in as the definite favourite, Pavlik had all kinds of trouble dealing with the southpaw Martinez, the WBO junior middleweight champion, who was moving up in weight for the bout. Pavlik was unable to use his size advantage and looked slower and significantly less crisp than Martinez. Pavlik was able to knock Martinez down in the seventh round but couldn’t sustain a consistent attack. Martinez opened deep cuts under both of Pavlik’s eyes with knifing punches before claiming a comfortable unanimous decision.
An indestructible reputation destroyed
The loss did more than cost Pavlik (36-2, 32 KOs) his two middleweight titles; it also punctured his seeming invincibility at the middleweight division. At 28, Pavlik should be in the prime of his career but his loss sent red flags up throughout the sport that perhaps he had lost a step. It became clear that his next few fights would be absolutely critical in determining the future direction of his boxing career. A series of solid performances would put him right back on track to be an elite fighter in the sport. But any additional losses could seriously hamper his efforts to get back to the top.
Given Pavlik’s recent history and his loss to Martinez, it’s been very surprising to hear recent news which has linked him to a fight later this year against Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. in the headlining bout of a PPV card. The fact that Pavlik would be interested in taking on Chavez Jr. (41-0-1, 30 KOs) is hardly shocking, but the fact that the bout will take place at middleweight has many people scratching their heads. Pavlik and his team mentioned after the loss to Martinez that he struggled to make the 160-pound weight limit for the middleweight division and that he would either be moving up to super middleweight or light heavyweight moving forward.
However, Pavlik’s co-manager Cameron Dunkin has changed course, saying that Pavlik never wanted to leave middleweight. He is apparently convinced that working with a nutritionist will help him do a better job of controlling his weight while maintaining his strength and stamina and allow him to continue fighting at middleweight. This would appear to be a very tall order, especially considering that he was at camp at 192 pounds before his fight against Martinez and had to drop 12 pounds on the day of the weigh-in in order to make weight.
Middleweight where the money is
Staying at middleweight is likely less about Pavlik being comfortable at that weight class than about a lack of exciting offers in other divisions. Moving up to super middleweight would be difficult since many of the division’s top fighters are currently engaged in the Super Six World Boxing Classic and would not be available for a fight until next year at the earliest. The only possible name opponent would be IBF champion Lucian Bute, but there are concerns that Bute’s style would be a poor match for Pavlik. Moving up to light heavyweight opens up a few more options but Pavlik was less than impressive in his last foray into the division.
Chavez Jr. has never been hotter as he comes off of an impressive victory over John Duddy on June 26. However, he has also had trouble making the middleweight limit and there has been talk of him eventually moving up to super middleweight. If this fight happens, the winner might be determined by who can win the battle over their waistline rather than inside the ring.
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