Can We At Least Agree That This Year Isn't As Warm As Past Years?

Question

Look at the data from NASA's GISS. Clearly the data shows that this year is one of the coolest years in awhile.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.C.txt

So can't we least agree that this year is cooling compared to previous years?

Answer 1

Where I live, summer has not been as hot as it used to be for at least five years or more. I can remember when the temps would run up to 112-115 degrees for weeks at a time. Now it gets nowhere near that hot. This year, officialy, we have only hit 100 degrees three times.

Answer 2

To answer your question - yes, clearly it's cooler.   The data show that, and I have witnessed it.    2005 I had to use my ceiling fan for 3 weeks straight.   2006 for two weeks.  2007 for about 3-4 days.   This year I haven't used it.   I don't even open the windows in one of my rooms.  The beach is downright cool at night.   Something's different this year.

To respond to some of the "so what, it's just weather" comments:

cool = noise

warm = signal

cool = weather

warm = climate

If we get two more years like it's been since Spring 2007 and then three months of warm weather, the three months will be signal.

If the present trend continues the "rolling five year average" will no longer show a continued upswing in temperatures - - and then you can bet that they'll insist that it's the ten year rolling average that matters, and they'll insist that that's what they've said all along.

And if it NEVER gets any warmer than it is now, they'll blame every storm, every heavy rain, every blizzard, every bad weather event, on us, and insist that only simpletons think global warming means it will get warmer, it's really "climate change" and it means the climate will change.

Except that the climate has always changed.    The Alps will be ice-free by 2100?    They were nearly ice free when Caligula's guards killed him.  Glacial retreat in the Alps is revealing artefacts from the MWP and the Roman period, and earlier.   There are severe droughts in the American Southwest and Africa?   Not yet as severe as the droughts in the American Southwest and Africa in the 11th and 12th centuries.   Species are moving closer to the poles?   In the 11th century, lower England was wine country.  

The fact that this has all happened before for reasons we do not understand, coupled with the fact that the pattern seems to be one of intermittent multi-century warm and cool periods, and the fact that we're not off-track from that pattern, does not prove that it's natural this time.    

But it does mean we can't just infer that it is not natural this time simply because we're here.

That inference is all they have.

That plus their attempt to re-write the last few warm periods out of the climate history.

AGW is an interesting theory that makes intuitive sense.    But those advocating it have blown their credibility on so many fronts that it's really difficult to take seriously the latest version of their thesis.

And for some reason they seem to think that calling us "denialist deniers denying our denial" will convince us to take them seriously.

All the weighted rolling averages and linear regressions - - they do whatever it takes to the numbers to get it to show warming.   The temperature is what it is.   They have rolling averages with stocks too.    You can't sell your Fannie Mae stock for the fifty day moving average or the 200 day moving average - if you want to sell it, you have to sell it at the ask price.   What's real is now.    And now it is downright cool.    

Seriously - it's mid-July and I'm sleeping under a comforter in the black room without the ceiling fan. Three years ago at this point in the year I'd sweat it out in the green room with the ceiling fan.    This is beyond back to normal - it's noticeably cool.   If "global warming" wasn't an issue, nobody had ever thought of it, etc......   I'd be genuinely concerned that this summer is half over and it's been cool.    

Boston was supposed to have "the climate of Atlanta."   This Spring we had the "climate of Seattle" and right now we have the "climate of Nova Scotia."    Now, arguably there's a global warming answer - the melting ice caps affecting sea surface temps in the North Atlantic and changing the Gulf Stream.   But that's not what they said was going to happen.

Answer 3

Sure.  So what?  What counts is the long term trend, weather "noise" can cause short term cooling.

It happened in 1982, 1991-1992, 1999-2000.  EVERY TIME global warming came back stronger than ever.  Proof.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2007/

The red line is the long term trend.  That's still going up.  The black line shows the effects of weather "noise".

Answer 4

That's because we're going into our other ice age, of course. This whole global warming stuff is a crock. We're at the point where everything should have heated up (a tropical age), and now things will be cooling down. Like I said, we'll be going into another ice-age for a while, in who knows how many years, and then things will start back up again.

The only reason that we have had especially high tempratures is that there have been a lot more sunspots than usual.

Don't worry. This is just nature's course.

Answer 5

Yes, we can agree on this. But never use NASA data as evidence as they are playing with the numbers. Use the satellite data as it is much more exact (no Urban heat issues) and they do not adjust the numbers as they see fit. The numbers are what they are.

Answer 6

That is one ugly chart:

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs...

(Yes, it is the same data.  Both the chart and the table are from http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs... )

But sure, I'll grant this is one of the cooler years of the last decade.  I fail to see the significance of this in the long-term though.

EDIT:  Vorenhut definitely deserves best answer.  Calculating the trend for Jello's own "evidence" to prove him wrong... brilliant!

Answer 7

global warming is happening no matter how comfortable a person feels with the heat. If you think global warming is fake you need to do some research before you make a fool of yourself.

Answer 8

Yes that is true, big time. Here in Oregon we didn't have a spring, we had one big, long, cold, wet extended winter that went up until mid-June. It just now FINALLY started warming up for summer. I was wearing my heavy leather winter coat in mid-May this year. Usually I put that thing away in March.

Answer 9

Hey Mr. Jello, the general trend is temperatures have generally climbed since the late 1800's (1880 to be exact) while solar activity has considerably decreased and is continuing to decrease as the average global temperature continues to rise. If you are going to use NASA's research use all of it, not just the information that abstractly fits with your argument.

Answer 10

Yea well there is always weather. Sometimes its hot, sometimes its cold. We had records set here in central Texas for heat. We have always set records for heat because it is so hot here all the time. Heatwaves in January. If there is global warming we will never know the difference. If you look at the last hundred million years you can see that temperatures today are much cooler, not nearly warm enough to support dinosaurs in Antarctica.

So in FACT the earth is in a very cool state. Any RATIONAL person who looked at the mathematics of the situation has to conclude that the earth's living things are currently victimized by COLD temperatures relative to what most living things have been accustomed to living in according to fossil records. People who want to stop global warming are therefore in fact the enemies of our Mother Earth and favor the freezing of living things and droughts.

Answer 11

From the data we have so far, and recognising that we are only half-way through the year, yes, the past six months have been cooler than recent years.

And that is all we can say from the data - you simply cannot (credibly) extrapolate a trend from 6 months.

So, Smarty, no. Maybe we are heading into an ice age (although the science doesn't indicate this) but the above data is not an indication one way or another.

We are not at the point where everything should have heated up;

Sunspots have nothing to do with global warming and;

This is not nature's course.

If you had provided any sources for your opinions then I would have cited some but as you can't be bothered...

As for Boatman - how can you look at the data and still say such rubbish. The data that jello gives us shows a clear upward trend since 2000. Honestly, how can you debate with someone who can look at a stop sign and insist it's green!

As for "still no sunspots"... relevance? (Nevermind that we are in a sunspot minimum so this is like saying at midnight "still no sun").

Rachael... this article is by one person who doesn't actually present any data nor references to where he gets this data from. I think most of us will agree that the past decade has probably not experienced as rapid an increase in temp as the previous decade but it has actually increased - definitley not cooled.

Here's the "missing link" that David Whitehouse should have supplied. It's a map of temp. differences from a long term average during the decade 1997-2007. It shows temp. increases everywhere! Note that this is from the data source you told us to use (Hadley).

If you want to compare decades, here is 98-07 compared to 88-97 http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistem...

Still warming all over the place.

To paraphrase:

The UK Meteorological Office's Hadley Center for Climate Studies Had-Crut data shows worldwide temperatures increasing since 1998

If you still want to insist on decreasing, provide a link to a similar map based on Hadley data that shows this decrease you talk about -

To help you out, here's one:

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistem...

NOTE: To get the above map that does show cooling, I had to use just one year as the base (to be meaningful, the base should be at least ten years, preferably 30) and I chose the of the hottest year possible (1998).

In other words, by squeezing the data beyond the definition of statistical analysis, I can "prove" anything...

This is hard data, not opinion

Answer 12

Yes, but not only Nasa's data.  The northern hemisphere had it's coldest winter on record, and where I live in Canada the entire past year has been on average considerably cooler than before.  We haven't kept up with warm temperatures of the past years at all.  It's noticably cooler.

Answer 13

its cooler in Oklahoma

Answer 14

Yes-- BUT-- there has been no warming since before 2000-- so we are now in our 8th year-- I personally expect this to continue -- by the way still no sunspots---

OK now you can flame me --

Answer 15

Sure, we can.

Answer 16

(Bob) gives an excellent example how cooling has always came back, and is continuing to still repeat itself.. You can also use his sources.

Answer 17

I'm glad you brought this up..... As a matter of fact the earth has been cooling for the past decade:

The UK Meteorological Office's Hadley Center for Climate Studies Had-Crut data shows worldwide temperatures declining since 1998. According to Hadley's data, the earth is not much warmer now than it was than it was in 1878 or 1941.  UAH and RSS both show decreasing temperatures over the last decade, with present temperatures barely above the 30 year average.

NASA has made a correction and now states that 1934 is the hottest year on record.

You won't see this in the MSM

Answer 18

Yes, I agree that we're having relatively cool *weather*.  And by 'relative', I mean in comparison to the past decade or so.  Compared to the past century, it's still warm.

Answer 19

It has been cooler this year. I would have moved somewhere else if it hadn't.

Answer 20

Anyone who has eyes could...lolz!!! Although u don't sweatt and stuff az much, and feel refreshed thiz summer, it means global warning is getting worse...sad face....

♥♥Mela♥♥

Answer 21

Who needs data?  The entire month of May this year was cooler than I remember.  June was cooler too, there were a few hot days, but a good thunderstorm took care of that.  July is shaping up to be cooler too.  I've only turned my A/C once this year.  We also had the fourth snowiest winter in 100 years.

Interestingly enough, there hasn't been one mention of "global warming" or "climate change" by our weathermen since the beginning of the year.  Last year hot weather was shaping up that global warming was soon.

Answer 22

no. it's cold. to say that it's cooling would imply a long term trend, which is not indicated by the data. quite the reverse, actually. seriously, I just did a linear regression on it, a weak correlation to be sure, but it's there. there is a positive, warming trend of 0.01 degrees per year, with an error of 0.005 degrees per year. I'm no statistician, but if I recall correctly, that establishes at the 95% confidence level that there really is warming. I'm sure a real climate scientist would do a more sophisticated analysis. and this is the data that YOU recommend we use? what are you trying to prove here exactly? other years it has been hot... that would not indicate warming, either. long term trends are what counts... even ten years may not be long enough. climate scientists seem to be saying that one should look at the last 50 years or so to best see the effect of global warming.

Answer 23

Oh right. In the last 129 years, only 114 have been cooler than 2008, January to June.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabled...

Answer 24

Yes. Global warming people use no reason, at all.

Answer 25

i'd have to agree with smarty. the earth is going through a cycle all of our pollution does contribute to global warming but not much. it is just earths cycle