Can anyone stop Federer v Nadal French Open final?
As Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer presented the latest instalment of their rivalry at the final of the Madrid Masters 1000 on the weekend, it was almost too easy to imagine the pair in the same situation at Roland Garros in a couple of weeks’ time.
Federer, after all, is the world No. 1 and the defending French Open champion. Nadal has taken a bite of the silverware in Paris on four previous occasions, and has earned his reputation as the King of Clay since claiming his first title at Roland Garros in 2005.
The Spaniard brought his A-game to the clay courts from match one at the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters this April, and three titles for the spring later, there are no questions about either fitness or form for Rafa as he seeks French Open title No. 5.
By contrast, Federer’s clay-court swing has been more a matter of shifting up a gear tournament by tournament, and though it was tough going at first, after Madrid the engine is ticking over nicely in top gear.
Indeed, it’s so easy to get wrapped up in the hype surrounding Federer and Nadal and their respective quests for the French Open title that the fact they are just two of 128 players who will begin the clay court Grand Slam with the dream of winning the title.
Fernando Verdasco is one who will have designs on winning his maiden Grand Slam title at Roland Garros after winning the Barcelona Open, an ATP Tour 500 event, during April. The world No. 9 began his clay-court season in style in Monte-Carlo, where he defeated Novak Djokovic in the semi-finals before discovering that even his best tennis wasn’t good enough to trouble an imperious Nadal in the final.
It was form though that Verdasco carried through to Barcelona, where he defeated Davis Cup teammate David Ferrer and top-10 player Robin Soderling to ensure the title remained in Spanish hands, even as Nadal allowed his body a week off to recuperate between titles. Verdasco’s form finally cooled a little in Madrid, where Jürgen Melzer defeated him in the third round.
There are, however, some rather large doubts as to whether Verdasco can defeat either Federer or Nadal on his way to the final at Roland Garros. In Monte-Carlo, Nadal proved he’s a more than a cut above his Spanish counterpart, and in four matches to date (two of them on clay), Federer is yet to lose to Verdasco.
World No. 3 Djokovic is another who poses a threat of preventing a final featuring the world’s top two ranked players. The Serb was laid low with illness and allergies in the quarter-finals of the Serbia Open in Belgrade, and missed Madrid as a result of his health problems, but should be back in the mix in Paris.
A semi-finalist in Monte-Carlo and a quarter-finalist in Rome (losing to Verdasco both times), Djokovic was building towards the French Open before he was forced to miss Madrid.
Nadal has, however, been a massive stumbling block for Djokovic at Roland Garros in the past, bringing his tournament to an end on three consecutive occasions, once in the quarter-finals and twice in the semis, from 2006 to 2008.
Djokovic’s chances of preventing a Nadal versus Federer final improve somewhat if it’s the latter he faces before the deciding match. The 23-year-old may only have won five of the 14 matches he’s played against Federer, but win the most recent match between the pair on the Swiss’ home turf in the final of the Swiss Indoors Basel last year.
Then, of course, there’s the man who prevented a fourth straight final between Rafa and Roger in 2009. The only player who has defeated Nadal at Roland Garros, last year’s runner-up Robin Soderling.
Including the fourth round of last year’s French Open, the Swede has won his last two matches against Nadal. After reaching the final in Barcelona though, the world No. 7’s form has been a little shaky with a third-round loss in Rome and defeat in his opening match in Madrid. Soderling is also winless in 12 previous matches against Federer, so it would be a big surprise if he pulled off the upset at a Grand Slam where the 16-time Grand Slam champion is at his best.
Andy Murray might be the next-best shot at preventing a Federer versus Nadal final in Paris, but though the world No. 4 is on the improve after starting the clay-court season poorly, he’ll need to fast-track that return to form if he’s to be any chance of preventing what starts to look like the inevitable here.
Even Ernests Gulbis, who provided the shock of the tournament in Rome when he defeated Federer in the second round, might be hard pressed to repeat the performance now the Fed Express has gathered steam.
There may well be a player who has been anointed by destiny to defeat either Federer or Nadal (or both) lurking in the draw somewhere, but all the evidence points towards another French Open final featuring these two great rivals again this year.
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