Can climate models predict with certainty whether it will be hotter or colder in 5 years?

Question

Can they predict with certainty whether the last 5 years will be hotter or colder than the next 5 years?

Answer 1

No, according to the models, we were supposed to be warmer for the last 7 years. Has not happened yet.

Answer 2

I can predict that if we burn 30 billion barrels of oil per year that eventually there won't be an atmosphere left.  Just like Mars.

Answer 3

Someone mentioned a few days ago that Bob and Dana are the same person. I have to say that I always suspected it myself.

Answer 4

On average, yes.  Of course any given year is unpredictable, but climate models can predict with a high degree of certainty that the trend will continue upward (unless something unpredictable happens like a large volcanic eruption).

Bob is Jello.  I'm CrazyConservative, Voice of Reason, Tomcat, Rick, charbatch, Mikira, GABY, and James Hansen.

Answer 5

I don't think so. There's a project working on that based on BOINC's platform. Check the link for more information.

Answer 6

Yes.

Re Your additional details. Trev and Dana are definitely separate people, I know them both. I can guarantee that neither are Dr Jello! I very much doubt Bob is Dr Jello either, lol.

Look back through people's questions and answers you will soon get a quick picture of what is going on. Thanks though, you made me laugh and I really needed it.

Answer 7

I don't think the climate is changing fast enough for that. Maybe 50 years, but not 5.

Answer 8

No, they can barely predict storms 3-5 days from now with 70% accuracy. Global warming is the Y2K for the 21st century.

Edit: Ben,

Climate and weather predictions are not and will never be 100% accurate. No human being on earth has this kind of data like Al Gore supposedly had. This is a scare tactic and a hoax. Actually the air you breathe and the water in lakes and oceans are much cleaner than they were 20 years ago. There is no more leaded gasoline except in Africa and that's what probably spared us. What will create a global catastrophe is the exponential population growth on this planet to the point where there are no resources left.

Answer 9

No, climate models predict trends.  It's likely to be warmer, but the El Nino influence affects temperatures more from year to year, so individual years are largely irrelevant (unless they surprisingly don't follow that influence, as was the case with 2007).

Answer 10

No, nothing is 100% certain. A large asteroid could strike Earth next year, resulting in a global "deep freeze". Plus the timing of random events, such as volcano eruptions (which could cool the climate on a globe scale), limit certainty.

But, ignoring the likelihood of random events, then it is very certain that global temperatures will continue to rise over the next five years, especially since greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, and the sun leaving the solar minimum of its 11-year cycle.

Note to Your #1 Fan, the person above:  Climate and weather are actually two different fields of study, and the level of predictability is comparably different. Think of this as the difference between trying to predict the height of the fifth wave from now that will come splashing up the beach versus predicting the height of tomorrow's high tide.

Climate is defined as weather averaged over a period of time, generally around 30 years. This averaging over time removes the random and unpredictable behavior of weather. This by no means says that it is necessarily easy to predict climate changes, but clearly seizing on the weatherman's weekly forecast failures to cast doubt on climate model projections is an argument of ignorance.

Edit: I’ve often wondered what Dr. Jello’s true identity is and what he actually believes. You can tell that he pulls most of his answers out of his…  I seriously doubt that Dana, Bob, Trevor, and Jello are the same person.