Can meteorologists be wrong about predictions track of hurricane?

Question

Can meteorologists be wrong about predictions track of hurricane?

Answer 1

Yes they can be wrong about anything.

Answer 2

They base their predictions on what they expect the conditions to be like in the future.  Of course they can and sometimes are wrong. Right now there is a stationary front sitting North of Florida. It makes it a little harder to predict the path of the Tropical storm.  If there was a High pressure area it would tend to push the storm away, a low would tend to draw the storm hearer but a stationary front not trending either way makes it a bit tricky.  Most likely, Fay will continue North on the Gulf side of  Florida and cross the panhandle.

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Answer 3

Yes we can be wrong. One thing that must be understood is that even with computer technology the atmosphere is under constant motion. Computers use the highest level of mathematics and physics to predict the atmosphere conditions. To be a good weather forecaster, one must understand the atmosphere behavior and judge the model usage. If you depend on one model or don't take outside meteorological affects your forecast can be wrong. So forecasting the weather is a difficult task for many meteorologists, but forecasting has improved.

Answer 4

Sure, but they are getting better at narrowing down the possibilities though.

Take a look at the link below and see how many different models they use to try to get a good idea of where the hurricane is going to track.  You'll notice that they all have very similar tracks, but they are definitely not identical.

Answer 5

Yes, forecasters can be wrong.  Remember...a forecast is only our best educated guess at the time the forecast was written and issued.  These forecasts are based on the current conditions, the forecasters' knowledge about how things interact in the atmosphere, the forecasters' experience with past storms, and how confident the forecasters are with the different computer forecast models they are using.  

Tropical storms, especially the weak CAT 1 Hurricanes, are historically the toughest ones to forecast since they tend to be more sensitive to smaller scale atmospheric features.  With stronger and larger scale hurricanes, we tend to be more accurate as they will mainly be sensitive to a few larger scale and more easier to identify atmospheric features.  With the limitations of the current forecast models, the larger CAT 4-5 hurricanes will have less variables that can significantly influence the growth, decay, and movement of these storms.

Forecasters usually encourage those who depend on their forecasts to always check back and check often for any future forecast updates.

Answer 6

I know, you would think that w/ all the technology of today they'd be able to know exactly where it's gonna go, and most of the time they are able to accurately predict it's track.  However, I'm not sure of your religious beliefs, but you cannot predict God.  He could turn that thing around to head backwards if He wanted to.  But for the most part, the technology they have these days, they are able to predict their tracks pretty well from what I've seen.

Answer 7

Yes, they can be wrong, but its unlikely. Tropical storms and hurricanes track in the direction of the upper level winds. If one of the jet streams, most likely the sub-tropical jet stream, shifts unexpectedly, then that will deflect the tropical storm or hurricane.