Can people actually predict at any given time whether a stock will go up or down when proof shows not?

Question

When in fact the best your going to get out of a stock is a general trend of up or down or an estimated price within one year. If your trying to predict at any given time by patterns of other things whether it will go up or down many times you will be false. So basically the way to invest is pick stocks that in general will go up and in my opinion the ones that IN GENERAL with no set pattern go back up are the ones that most people are scared of and think suck like I bought BAC at 18-20 bucks a share people were scared of it and it shot up but I wasn't trying to make any great timed predictions with charts or anything. How many of these chartists actually make money net income at the end of a year off their trades?

Peace

Answer 1

About 90 percent of the anti-trader arguments are unfounded and foolish.  There is no proof.  Common arguments:

They all lose money...

They exist.  I think that is proof enough.

Most lose money...

This one is true.  Most people lack the management, lack of emotion, discipline, and many of the qualities required to trade successfully.

You can't judge future prices from past...

The argument for this is just as cloudy as the argument against it, but I guarantee you there is no statistical proof for this.

Efficient Market Hypothesis...

It is true that big time traders have closed most of the obvious gaps.  But, there are certain things that traders help other traders with.  For example, support and resistance is something some investors contribute to, but many traders are expecting.  So, they take the positions that inevitably turn the markets at these points, and it is a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Most traders are right less than half the time...

Exactly.  But if you are right half the time and have a reward:risk ratio of 3:1 then you are making a killing.

It's not about predicting prices, exactly.  It is about predicting supply and demand, which in turn translates into prices.

Honestly, if you believe the so-called proof then you have no place in trading (and if these arguments change your mind about trading, you are ironically even less suited for it).  Invest wisely.

Answer 2

You got lucky with BAC. You bought when everyone had been panic selling. Sometimes this works, sometimes it does not.

There is no sure way to predict stock prices.

Good luck!