Can the weather be predicted for more than 10 days ahead?

Question

Can the weather be predicted for more than 10 days ahead?

Answer 1

Not with a high degree of accuracy, mainly due to the fact that the atmosphere is very dynamical and that far out it is impossible to model the atmosphere with the degree of accuracy that would be needed.  Much of the forecast in those time periods are weighted on climatology, i.e. what is typical weather for that time.

Answer 2

They can use data during the initialization period and climatology tables and make an educated guess, but reliable long rang forecasts that far out,  are not that reliable for planning purposes.

Answer 3

Ive seen it as far out as 15 days ahead, and for greater periods in very generic terms.  Honestly, more than 3-5 days out tends to only be semi-accurate though.

Answer 4

If by predicted you mean guessed than yes. Really people can only predict with spot on tactics is would will happen in the next 2-3 minutes. Anywhere beyond that is a guess.

Answer 5

Anything can be predicted, but the level of confidence in a 10+ day forecast is in most cases very low.  

However, some regions of the world have very persistent weather conditions, and you can make a persistence forecast based off of past data.  

Any locations in the mid-latitudes, especially 30-60N, can have extreme weather shifts in a day period.  Current technology/knowledge only allows models, such as the GFS, NAM, NOGAPS, to accurately depict weather in a small time frame.  Sometimes, models will have a high confidence and be correct in their prognostications up to 10 days out.  However, other times, models may be wrong even 24-48 hours in advance.  For example, one model may say a cold front will produce thunderstorms tomorrow and a second model says no.  The forecaster then has to decide based on his/her knowledge of the region and model error to forecast thunderstorms or not.

It's all a complicated scientific estimation!