Card Counting / 21 the movie?

Question

Let me try to explain my question as best as possible because im really confusing myself at the same time.

In card counting, if the "table is hot" what is preventing the dealer from getting Aces and tens and the cards you want? For example, if there are 3 players at a table the dealer is getting the fourth set of cards. Now what happens if the card counter sits down at that table in the fourth player seat. Now he is esentially getting the cards the dealer would have gotten, the fourth set. Basically what im asking is that when a table is hot dont you and the dealer have a 50% chance of getting the hot cards and in turn, only a 50% chance of winning?

I know im really confused and may be thinking about this too in depth but can somebody plase explain what gives you the advantage over the dealer when card counting?

Thanks

Answer 1

You are abosolutely correct in what you are suggesting, the dealer is just as likely to be dealt those cards as you are, this doesnt effect the advanatge, but it does clearly illustarate how you are not still gauranteed to win each individual hand.

To really explain where the edge comes from, im gogin to have to start from the beginning of where the hosue edge comes from.

The house edge as you likely know comes from the dealer acting after the player, if the player busts, and the dealer busts, it is not a tie the hosue wins this single event happens regularly and is what constitutes the basic house edge. This edge happens to be around 7% which is rather large fortunately then comes along several rules the negate the hosue edge like the player gets payed 3:2 on blackjack whihc happen about 1:21 hands, the player has the ability to split a hands into 2 hands, and the ability to double down if they wish. By taking advantage of every oportunity where splitting and doubleing is mathematically beneificial, the house edge is almost entirely eleminated. You probibly already know about basic strategy, but what im getting at is that the ability to split double and get payed 3:2 is what drastically reduces the house edge.

As the contents of the cards change, two things happen, one being the dealer busts slightly more often because of the increased presence of card that could make a busted hand.

this is good because when you double down or split, you do so because of the high probibility of a win on that particular hand, with more high cards, the dealer will bust more often and your doubles and splits will be more successful (FURTHER reducing the house edge) Also, you will have newly formed oportunities to double and split that woudl not have been beneficial to you before, such as splitting tens, and doubling on other totals that you wouldnt normally do if the cards were not biased again further reducing the house edge.

And secondly, and this is the obvious one, when there are more aces and tens, yo get more blackjacks, so does the dealer, but you get payed 3:2, and theres is also a throshold where taking insurance becomes a profitable bet. You get payed 3:2 the dealer doesnt, you will get an equal number of blaklcjacks, but you will get more money form hem than the dealer so getting more of them is better.

Combining all of those effects is how the edge sometimes lies wiht the player, all in all only about 25% of the times are the effects large enough to completely overcome the house edge so that the player is expectig to win, but it does happena dn you can take advantage of it and win money.