Casino Drive - Can he give Big Brown a run for his $$ or will Brown just BLAZE...?????

Question

what will the finish time be..?

Answer 1

First I would like to pay props to KMNMIAMISAX (who also has an answer here) He tied for first palce in my Preakness Challenge question last week with 800 points...

Now Casino Drive is great horse but don't be fooled. He simply can't win against Big Brown unless something goes wrong.

I was quite impressed with Casino's Peter Pan victory and yes the Japanees import does have superior breeding gearing him for a winning result at the Belmont Stakes but he has alot working against him too.

1) "Casino Drive has only 2 races..."

It's not Casino's actual racing experience that is a area of concern. He kept his cool breaking from the inside post and he split horses coming home in the Peter Pan. It was a very veteran like move.

I would worry more about the maximum crowd capacity that we are going to see at Belmont in 3 weeks.

The cheering and noise can negatively affect horses the first time they encounter a tripple crown race. It can stress them out a little before the race and spook them during it. Big Brown has delt with the giant crowds twice and Casino Drive has not.

2) "Common foes and the Contrast to the beatings that were handed out to them"

I'm talking about Mint Lane and Icabad Crane...

Now Mint Lane is just as fast as Icabad is. He only lost by a head to him in a stakes race back on April 19th.

Mint Lane faced Casino Drive in the Peter Pan stakes and Mint Lane ran a GOOD RACE.

Icabad Crane faced Big Brown in the Preakness and Icabad Crane ran a GOOD RACE.

I stress "GOOD RACE" because there are other horses that fall into this category too, but they threw in klunkers at the Peter Pan and Preakness and you want to compare and contrast with horses running in good form when handicapping.

Icabad's loss to Big Brown was by 6 lengths...

Mint Lane's loss to Casino Drive was by 6 Lengths as well...

So whats the big deal they are equal right...

No... go to these URLS and watch the race replays and notice the difference in how Jockey Kent Desormeaux has to ride Big Brown and Casino Drive. (Yes, he rode both horses)

http://sports.espn.go.com/broadband/vide...

http://sports.espn.go.com/broadband/vide...

Kent is hitting Casino Drive with the whip to win the Peter Pan but he is only urging Big Brown at the Preakness and he is looking between his legs for any threats but there were'nt any coming to challenge him.

Kent even stops urging Big Brown well before the finishline. He could have won by alot more. It wasn't a race it was a just a work out. Smarty Jones & Funny Cide won impressively at the preakness but they were ridden hard and urged till the wire to win the preakness and both came up a bit short at the Belmont.

Big Brown came out of the race great. He ate all of his oats and he was full of himself back at the barn.

He will not be fatigued at all for the Belmont stakes.

I can't tell you what time he'll finish in. It depends on how fast the track is. He won't break the track record, if that's what you're getting at...

I say he will win by 3 lengths or more.

Answer 2

Big Brown has never had the opportunity to show us what he can really do.  There's no telling how well the horse can run if he's asked.  He's never been pushed hard so I just don't know.  When really asked, he might fizzle or he could soar.  Casino Drive will be a big rested monster on Belmont day... I'm looking forward to it.

Answer 3

Keep in mind, Kent Desormeaux knows exactly what kind of a horse Casino Drive is. Big Brown hardly broke a sweat in the Preakness, he's never kicked it into high gear yet. I think Big Brown will blow away the field.

Answer 4

I'm not convinced Casino Drive is the horse to worry about for the reasons realquit stated:  he's awfully green and the crowd could upset him along with the Mint Lane/Icabad Crane angle.

I wouldn't be dismissive of the horses that did poorly in the Derby or have had mediocre prep seasons.  Three out of the last four Derby-Preakness winners were upset by long shots in the Belmont (Lemon Drop Kid, Sarava, and Birdstone).  Nobody took those colts seriously until they passed everybody in the Belmont stretch.

Answer 5

Idk finish time, but casino drive will maker it at least REALLY close if not win.

Answer 6

I like Big Brown but for that reason I would be pleased if there is at least one horse who represents a serious challenge to what would otherwise be a Triple Crown gained without an all out effort from Big Brown. Big Brown gave an all out effort to win the Kentucky Derby with Eight Belles in hot pursuit (R.I.P. Eight Belles), but without a serious qualified challenge in the Preakness Stakes the 2nd leg of the Triple Crown looked like a walk in the park for Big Brown with little effort, a challenge that would likely have come from Harlem Rocker had the owner not decided that would be "asking Harlem Rocker for too much too soon" and point him toward the Queen's Plate rather than challenge Big Brown, a decision that was fine with Big Brown's trainer, Richard Dutrow, who said "I was concerned about him making our horse run harder than we wanted. This gives us a chance to have an easy race for our horse." So with the 2nd leg of the Triple Crown being more or less a gift, wouldn't winning the Triple Crown be a hollow victory for Big Brown in an otherwise weak year for 3-year-olds if there was not one or two of or near his caliber to challenge him? The last thing I want to hear from Big Brown's trainer again is for him to say "this gives us a chance to have an easy race for our horse" and so I do hope Casino Drive will be a serious challenge, but a challenge who will be beat by Big Brown by a nose at the wire with a maximum effort from Big Brown to win.