Chances of winning black jack?

Question

me and my friend were trying to figure this out forever yesterday.

if you go to a casino and play black jack against the dealer you are looking at a 48% chance of winning (the two % descrepance comes from the fact that if you tie, the dealer wins) if you were to play two games with these odds, what would be the chance that you would win ONE? what if you were to play three games?

Answer 1

Unfortunately, your original assumptions are a little flawed.

You see, what you may not know about Blackjack, is that there are a number of subtle rule changes a casino can make (their 'house rules') that alter their edge considerably in this game.

In many casinos a dealer/player tie is called a push, and you win your money back.  In fact if a player lost on ties from 17-21, it would give the house an extra 8.86% house advantage, on top of their other house edge.

In fact, according to the respected Wizard Of Odds web site, there are over 3,000 subtle rule combinations that can massively affect the edge when playing blackjack.

The link I've given you explains this in more detail, and there is even a calculator provided that allows you to enter the rules from the specific casino you play at and see the house edge.

Once you know the house edge, that's only part of the battle.  The next issue is how you play.  If you don't play perfect mathematical strategy, you start to give up more edge to the casino.

So when someone tells you that blackjack has a really low house edge, for the most part they are wrong.  The exact edge is determined by the rules in place, together with the skill and ability of the player.  In a casino with bad blackjack rules, and a player who is not playing perfect strategy, the edge could easily be worse than a slot machine.

For all of these reasons, it's not possible to answer your question.  The odds of you beating the dealer, depend very much on the rules, and your ability as a player to make the right decisions.

Answer 2

I don't know where you are getting your information, a tie in blackjack is a tie or a push, and you do NOT lose your bet, it is returned to you by the dealer.  

There are some indian casinos where in fact the dealer wins the tie, along with other rules that a very unfavorable to the player, and if you play there, your chances of winning are very low. Don't play there!

Here is a system for Blackjack that may help you. It is called the Blackjack Betting Trigger, and here is the link:

http://www.thedoverpro.com/blackjack.htm

Answer 3

you've confused chance to win with possible outcomes.

you do not have a set % chance to win every time you sit down to play blackjack, it depends on what cards are dealt. if you are dealt 21 10 times in a row, you'll have a greater winning % than if you are dealt 66 10 times in a row.

you are correct in saying there are usually 3 possible outcomes (win, lose or push), but the probability for each outcome is not guaranteed.

it's a bit difference from say craps or roulette where there is only a single, calculated event with a limited number of outcomes that can determine winning or losing. in blackjack, the next card might bust you, or it might make the dealer's hand. also, what other people do and the state of the deck also affects the outcome.

I think, if you are planning on developing your own system, you should start with roulette where the odds are very clear about winning or losing.

As a side note, one time i lost 12 hands in a row of blackjack, and there was absolutely nothing I could do. I had 16, dealer had 15, next card was a 6, or I had a hard 20, and dealer hit a 5 card 21, where there was nothing I could do to stop myself from losing the hand.

Answer 4

The house edge comes from making you play first.

Answer 5

In most regular casinos, a tie with the dealer is considered a push and you get your money back.

The 2% house advantage that you are referring to is built into the design of the game and has nothing to do with ties.

Answer 6

"Under Atlantic City rules the probability of a net win is 43.31%, a tie is 8.80%, and a loss is 47.89%"

***source http://www.wizardofodds.com ***

those are the numbers you need to work off of, calulating these number on your own is no easy task do to the complication of splitting, and automatic wins for blackjacks

Atlantic city rules are defined as,  8 decks dealer stands on soft 17, doubling after splitting allowed, split three times to a max of 4 hands, blackjack pay 3:2

Note:this is no longer the case for all games in atlantic city, but "AC RULES" is still in refference to the rules above

Answer 7

okay... people love to give overcomplicated answers as if they were in court.. i'll keep it simple..

lets just make the assumption that your method play averages out to about a 2% house edge. Another way to put it is, you can expect the dealer to win 58% of the time and you to win 48% of the time in the long run.

Then the prob of winning at least one hand out of two boxes is

P1 = 1 - (.52 * .52)        

      = 1 - 0.2704

      = 0.7296

So you can expect to win at least one box out of two 73% of the time.

Likewise for 3 boxes,

P2 = 1 - (.52*.52*.52)

      = 0.859 or around 86%

Note: sometimes its easier to go in reverse and work out the probability of losing rather than working out probability of winning 1 plus probability of winning 2 plus blah blah blah

also... in blackjack the mathematical house edge does depend alot on your method of play. Basic Strategy can get it down as much 0.5%. BUT as with all gambling most casinos have a hold on blackjack that averages 30-40%. That is, the casino expects to win 30-40% of all cash ins. Getting this down is really what gambling strategies are all about.... but anyways..

good luck!