Concerning Global Warming: how can this be??

Question

Okay, this is for all the global warming alarmists out there...

According to "expert" predictions, "scientific" forecasts, etc., etc., etc., the Earth is warming at an ALARMING rate, and it is PREDICTED that major climate changes over the next 10, 20, 100, etc., years are gong to drastically change our planet, quite possibly so drastically that all life as we know it will be irrevocably altered, possibly even destroyed, by this change. Predictions of more frequent, more violent hurricanes and tornadoes, heavy rain/drought (depending on who you ask), hotter summers and milder winters, depletion of the ozone, shifting regional climates, etc., etc., are constantly being pushed out to the public as Gospel truth, paired with the admonition that if we don't change our ways, we are doomed. This of course has resulted in the resurgence of the green people, who blame humans (Americans in particular) for all of the Earth's woes.

HOWEVER, a recent article about the disparities between the forecasts of the Farmer's Almanac (which claims an 80-85% accuracy rate for its predictions) and the National Weather Service has produced an interesting assertion from Ed O'Lenic, the Chief of Opertaions for the NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. According to Mr. O'Lenic, it is "impossible" to forecast weather more than a week ahead of time (this is in response to the Almanac's "predictions" being prepared up to 2 years in advance of publication). He goes on to say that "Of course it's possible to prepare a forecast with any lead time you like. Whether or nor that forecast has any accuracy or usable skill is another question."

Now, I'm not one to advocate excessive overuse of natural and finite resources, and surely don't support widespread pollution at the cost of our planet, but if this is true, and Mr. O'Lenic is a respected and authoritative member of the climate prediction crowd, how is it possible for anyone to tell us, with ANY accuracy whatsoever, what the weather will be like in 100 years if they can't tell us with any surety what the weather will be like next Thursday??

Just trying to figure out the discrepancy here. Those of you "in the know" please help me out here...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080824/ap_on_re_us/farmers__almanac

Answer 1

A lot of people here don't understand that there's a difference between weather and climate.  Weather is localized and on a day to day basis; climate is a worldwide trend.  When someone reports a record low in Denver, that's an isolated weather report, and it has nothing to do with climate change.  The climate change predictions are based on decades of observation of trends, and those climate scientists don't claim to be able to precisely predict the weather for specific years in the future.  They're only saying that they've observed an ongoing change.

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I see you spent a lot of time saying repeatedly that predicting and forecasting are synonymous, but you've totally ignored the numerous answers pointing out the difference between weather and climate.  Your whole argument hinges on equating the two, and you just can't do it.

Answer 2

The problem is that the Earth is not warming at an alarming rate, currently it is cooling and has been for almost a decade. And increasing CO2 levels does not seem to have any effect on the cooling.

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/MSUCRUvs...

Answer 3

I don't believe in AGW but there is some truth to what Mr. O'Lenic says.  The mistake being made here is a differentiation between climate and weather.  AGW proponents are not claiming to predict weather 100 years out, they are claiming to predict the entire climate.  

With that said, they cannot predict the climate 100 years out either, no matter what their alarmist claims state.  This is easily proven by the fact that current climate models fail to accurately predict today's climate based on historical input.  http://www.inscc.utah.edu/~reichler/publ...

If the models cannot predict what is already known they are completely useless for predicting climate at any time in the future.  

Answer 4

We are unable to accurately predict weather more than 3-5 days ahead, but global warming tendencies are on a much more macro scale. We are able to project trends with computer modeling. That modeling takes into consideration the input of predicted trends.

Answer 5

Wow I am so glad you typed that really long question here on Yahoo Answers, just think of all the politicians, climatologists and Nobel Prize winners that will get this important info now.  

Answer 6

Funny I don't know any reputable scientific group that is predicting

"that all life as we know it will be irrevocably altered, possibly even destroyed, by this change."

and as to predicting weather that is one deniers keep going back to, and it doesn't work as an argument.

http://environment.newscientist.com/chan...

Answer 7

I' m just as befuddled as you are on the issue ofglobal warming, not knowing who to believe.  I suppose that we'll just have to strike out to find our own answers.

This is written by  former astronaught Walter Cunningham in Launch Magazine.  There are several articles at this link but the one refering to global warming is titled "In Science, Ignorance is not Bliss" and in it he refers to things that I've never heard about, but then there are a lot of things that I  haven't heard about. (lol)

Maybe it will help.

http://launchmagonline.com/index.php/Vie...

Answer 8

Well to be truthful the Farmers Almanac was predicting climate for its constituents to plant their crops by while the climate scientists of their day were dancing around fires in jeweled garments throwing iron dust in the fire and shaking gourd rattles to bring the rain and rid the tribes of evil spirits.  

Answer 9

First of all, we are in an Ice Age.  Our Ice Age consists of periods of glaciation and Interglacial periods.  We are currently in a very warm stage of an interglacial period.  To suggest that we would be in an "Ice Age" (translation = glacial period) if it weren't for American prosperity (that is what Alarmists suggest causes global warming) is just about the most ridiculous claim I have heard in a while.  If Alarmists don't raise the shrill level every year, then they are afraid their doomsday message will be lost on those of us who don't buy into it.  It is remarkable to me that this current Alarmist Crisis has gone this far.  We need to have one of those McCarthy moments where someone like the lawyer Welch said, "You have done enough. Have you no sense of decency?" ,  

Answer 10

There is a major difference between weather and climate.    The climate in Florida is generally hot (compared to most of the rest of the country), but it can sometimes freeze there so the weather would be cold then.

Answer 11

pretty scary.

Answer 12

The earth's climate has changed many times in the past to other factors. We should be in an ice age but human activity has postponed this. The predictions of what will happen is unknown. The further out in time the less accurate the prediction is just like weather forecasting. Be rest assured big changes are on the way

Answer 13

When they say that it may get hotter and that there will be more rain in a few years, they are following the patterns from a few years back. They are only right if the pattern continues.

Also, they aren't actually predicting an day to day forecast. They're just saying that in general it will get hotter. They aren't necessarily right.

Answer 14

Oh, dear, oh, dear...

I know we've done this a few times before but let's do it one more time and see if it sinks in this time.

'Weather' is a different word than 'climate' (you'll notice it has different letters in it...).

'Weather' is extremely hard to predict with any accuracy more than a few days in advance.

'Climate', especially broad trends on a planet-wide basis, is still incredibly complex but is possible to predict.

I've seen this in many questions: It starts with a statement such as:

"major climate changes" are "predicted"

and then goes on to say that

it is "impossible" to forecast "weather".

This is the same as saying that cats are believed to eat mice and yet it has been proved that cows cannot digest mice...

Cows are not cats.

Climate is not weather.