Could I be right, is a depression coming?

Question

I am 76 years old, and have seen recessions come and go, but I have never seen bad times like now, and they say we are not even in a recession yet,and personally I am not suffering either, it just gives me a bad feeling, what do you think.

Answer 1

We are in a worst recession that no one can imagine. But the worst is yet to come as our US treasuary bond rating is downgraded, which will come pretty soon.

Answer 2

As a few already know I now live in Bulgaria where even here the prices are steadily rising and to top that the pound has fallen so I am losing about £40 a month on my state pension. I think it will get worse before the tide turns but it will never go back to what it was.  

Answer 3

I live in the Detroit, Michigan area. Homes are being foreclosed and then left. The factories are closing down (nothing new to detroit) the mayor is crooked, the high oil prices which lead to high gas prices. However do not be upset right now. The banks are protected by the federal government,

Answer 4

Because it's an election year, Republicans are deferring to it as, "The R Word". If you own a home in Las Vegas, the Real Estate brokers are asking you not to stick your head in the oven and turn on the jets. If this isn't a recession, I don't know what is.

Answer 5

I think we are in a different kind of recession, if not close to a depression, I work in the automotive industry and have been for the last 22 years and have never seen it this bad. The US automakers are ready to go under. I hope that things do turn around soon, You hear allot about jobs ending with companies or companies closing. I think you are right Scrooge, I pay attention to my gut feeling.

Answer 6

u know dats wat think

it looks like it could happen wat the pres dont want to say anything cuz it will get everybody scared

Answer 7

Most of the experts still say recession, not depression, but I have noticed that lately some of them are starting to say it may end up being a depression. I hope not.

Answer 8

I think some are in a recession already to be honest, I know i cannot buy what I want right now because the money is not easy to get. my contacts for my freelance design jobs has dried up in fact. That means i am in a real depression as it is right now. so do go and buy the book will ya.  

Answer 9

Not a depression, but according to Mort Zuckerman

"the worst recession since the great depression"

Answer 10

Just copying an article from NY Times:

Some of us watching the current mortgage meltdown and stock market gyrations remember the real estate slide and stock market crash of the 1980s. (Others, including some of the younger mortgage brokers who made all these risky loans that are now going up in smoke, apparently weren’t around then)



The lending problems in the 1980s — both in the savings and loan mortgage market and the junk bond mania on Wall Street — were much worse that anything we've seen so far today. When it was all over, more than 1,000 thrift institutions, holding $519 billion, had been closed down in the “greatest collapse of U.S. financial institutions since the 1930s,”  according to a summary report by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.

At the worst of the 1980s crunch, we heard respected forecasters talk about 50 percent drops in housing prices and dire predictions of impending economic doom. Bookshelves sprouted titles like “How to Prepare for the Coming Economic Collapse” complete with advice on stocking up on canned goods.



But when the dust settled, the depression of the 1990s didn’t happen. Yes, we had a fairly nasty recession in 90-91, the housing market unraveled (home prices fell somewhat or were flat for many years in some markets), major commercial developers went bust, Congress had to write a check for over $100 billion to clean up the mess, and some S&L cowboys who wrote junk bonds that weren't worth the paper they were printed on went to jail. Within a few years, the economy was back on its feet again. Within a decade, the Fed chairman was worrying outloud about “irrational exuberance.”

It’s often said that economic cycles, and the markets that finance them, swing between fear and greed. Today, with the “fear factor” on the ascendancy, it’s useful to consider the scale of economic devastation brought by the Great Depression. Between 1929 and 1933, U.S. Gross Domestic Product fell from $103.6 billion to $56.4 billion — a 46 percent contraction that took 10 years to retrace. By contrast, the 1990-91 recession that followed the late 1980s housing collapse lasted 8 months, and GDP dropped by about 1 percent.

You can never say never again, but there are a number of reasons to believe that the odds of seeing another contraction on the scale of the Great Depression in your lifetime are pretty remote. The 1930s actually produced two back-to-back contractions; since then, historians have unearthed a number of government and businesses mistakes that actually made things worse and prolonged the agony.

Those lessons learned may help explain why modern recessions tend to be shorter and shallower than the panics and busts of earlier economic upheavals. From 1854 to 1919, for example, there were 16 downturns lasting an average of 22 months, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. From 1919-1945, the average downturn lasted 18 months. From 1945-2001, the average recession lasted just 8 months.

While any recession is painful, recent downturns have been relatively mild by historical standards. One useful measure is the number of people who lose their jobs. In the recession of mid 1970s, the unemployment rate jumped from 4.6 percent to 9 percent. In the 1980-82 slump, the jobless rate shot up from 5.7 to 10.8 percent. In 1990-91 it went from 5.0 percent to 7.8 percent. In 2000, after falling to 3.8 percent, the jobless rate hit 6.3 percent in 2003 before dropping back to 4.5 percent today.

But, based on what’s going on today, we’re betting against a catastrophic, Hollywood-movie-style economic collapse

Answer 11

I think the economy is in big trouble!  Worse than we think.

The media is not telling the extent of it for numerous reasons; chiefly, it would cause too much panic and that would accelerate our downfall.

It feels like our world is falling apart.  Everyday I wonder what new catastrophe awaits!

Answer 12

i know where your coming from we have seen the recession of the 70s and it wasn't as bad as this . we haven't seen the worse yet the media says ,well with higher food prices and banks in trouble and the govt stepping in i cant even imagine whats to come.

Answer 13

I believe that it is already here & we have not hit bottom yet..  

Hope that I am wrong..

Answer 14

we are all in big trouble.  

Answer 15

Yes you are right.

My brains & my gut are telling me the same.

It is going to be the worst time our world has seen.

Financially & socially.

I believe people will not be able to handle it & crime will be the main problem.