Could Workforce be put to productive use in Derby?
There is a theory in poker that when a man with money meets a man with experience, the man with experience leaves with money and the man with money leaves with experience.
The market for the stanjames.com 2000 Guineas is favouring St Nicholas Abbey, but is that, like a second marriage, a triumph for hope over experience? And should there be anything read into the fact that the colt has also been entered for the totesport Dante Stakes at York on May 13th, 12 days after the Guineas?
St Nicholas Abbey has been favourite for both the Guineas and the Investec Derby from almost as soon as he galloped past the post having won the Racing Post trophy at Doncaster last October. At the time the colt’s trainer, Aidan O’Brien, remained non-committal on plans for this season.
One of his favoured ripostes to questions over where his horses may run next is to say that nothing is ruled in and nothing is ruled out. This is not simply to be evasive, but his Ballydoyle yard is wall-to-wall Classic contenders at present. O’Brien’s name appears next to 34 current entries for the Derby and, to put that into perspective, Vincent O'Brien never had 36 three-year-old colts in his yard at Ballydoyle in any season he trained there.
However, the present incumbent has whittled down his Guineas options, as he explained on his website: “Our most likely runners for the StanJames.com 2000 Guineas at Newmarket on Saturday May 1 will hopefully come from the following horses; St Nicholas Abbey, Viscount Nelson, Fencing Master and Beethoven. It is unfortunate that Steinbeck is going to miss the StanJames.com 2000 Guineas.
“He has done really well and we are very excited about him. Hopefully he will restart in the Abu Dhabi Irish 2000 Guineas on Saturday May 22 at the Curragh.”
In much the same way that the excitement of Nijinksy’s Triple Crown season of 1970 was immediately followed by the stellar Classic season of Mill Reef and Brigadier Gerard, there has been a groundswell of hope – or, maybe hype – that St Nicholas Abbey can match the deeds of the colt who blazed across last spring, summer and autumn.
History, however, does not appear to be on the side of the dreamers. Apart from the fact that Sea The Stars was the first colt since Nashwan, in 1989, to complete the Guineas-Derby double, the Racing Post Trophy has not proved a very good trial for the Guineas with only one colt, High Top, achieving in both races in 1971-72.
This is less of a statistical anomaly and more a reflection in the way that such Thoroughbreds progress from their first to second competitive season. St Nicholas Abbey used his telling turn of foot to win at Doncaster but was this beating a field of tyro middle-distance runners rather the next generation of milers? His pedigree strongly suggests he will need middle distances this season. His sire, Montjeu, has yet to sire a top-class miler, which is partly because his success has been as the progenitor of Derby winners attracts breeders looking to produce that type of stamina-imbued progeny.
Mark Johnston, who is preparing his own Guineas hope Awzaan, made the point when he said: “If I had St Nicholas Abbey, I'd be thinking he'll be at his best over more than a mile in June, not in the first week of May.”
St Nicholas Abbey became the third son of Montjeu – from what was then only six crops of racing age – to win the Racing Post Trophy. The other two were Motivator and Authorized, who both went on to win the Derby in the following season, but never raced over a mile as a three-year-old.
The entry for the Dante should probably be seen as little more than the usual O’Brien block entry for the major races – a sort of buy now, make the final decision later – but there are other trainers with decisions to make.
Workforce has been a colt who is making headlines from the safety of his stable at Sir Michael Stoute’s Freemason Lodge yard. A six-length winner of a decent maiden at Goodwood last September, the word was that the colt did not figure in Derby plans. He had not been entered, due to doubts over his pedigree in terms of stamina, and was unlikely to be added at the second entry stage next week.
This was later refuted by connections and he has now been entered for the Dante and backed for the Guineas. Tuesday’s entry stage for the Derby may prove illuminating because it would not be the first time that Stoute has had a change of heart about a Derby contender.
In 2003 Kris Kin, having been scratched from the race earlier in the year was re-entered at the supplementary stage following his surprise win in the Dee Stakes, and proved the value of the £90,000 it cost by winning the race.
It will cost to £8,000 to buy a seat at the table for the Derby but Workforce’s owner, Prince Khalid Abdullah, has the money and Stoute has the experience if they believe it is worthwhile.
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