Rookie of the year betting value
Sportsbook has released the odds for Defensive Rookie of the Year recognition in the upcoming 2010 National Football League season. It is important to find the best value in these bets in accordance with how soon the rookie will get on the field, how well the system meets his talents, and how good his team is.
It is also of note that every year besides one since Brian Urlacher’s 2000 ROY award, a linebacker has taken home defensive rookie of the year recognition. The only exception was defensive end Julius Peppers, who won in 2002.
Without further ado, the odds and an analysis of their value:
Eric Berry, Buffalo Bills, 4.5 – 1: Berry is easily the highest rated safety to emerge out of college in recent memory and is entirely NFL ready from the get-go. Also the poor Bills coverage will be relying on him to make a splash right away. Although this pressure may hurt him, it also means he’ll have many more opportunities to shine.
Historically speaking though, Berry is in a very unfavourable position. The last time a safety was award DROY status was in 1990 when Mark Carrier won the award while on the Chicago Bears. Also, the Bills secondary is really awful so even if Berry does well individually, Buffalo will be getting aired out on a regular basis. It’s tough to convince voters of being the best rookie defender when your team can’t win and the coverage you are involved in fails due to others’ inabilities.
Ndamukong Suh, Detroit Lions, 4.5 – 1: Defensive tackle Suh was considered by many to be the best available player in this year’s draft, even better than quarterback Sam Bradford. On the collegiate level, Suh looked like a man amongst boys. He was simply unstoppable when it came to ravaging opponents’ offensive lines and he is more than ready to be a dominant NFL player right off the bat.
Suh’s individual talents are undeniable, but his chances of winning are hurt by playing a position that doesn’t quite pile on statistics for a team that is going to otherwise be bad. The Lions aren’t going to do anything with this year, though they are rebuilding in the right direction, and that will make it harder for Suh to get noticed for DROY. The last time a defensive tackle won the award was in 1994 by then Washington Redskin rookie Tim Bowens.
Gerald McCoy, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 7.5 – 1: McCoy is often considered to have been very close to Suh in defensive tackle talent and abilities in college which makes the disparity in their odds even more enticing. McCoy will be sure to rack up a lot more glamour numbers, like sacks and tackles for a loss, in the Buccaneers system even if he plays on the same level as Suh. This means that his odds are of a pretty tremendous value.
It’s important to note the Bucs will still be horrendous this season and that defensive tackles aren’t very apt at winning DROY, with odds at 7.5-1, bettors might just come to realize Gerald is the real McCoy.
Earl Thomas, Seattle Seahawks, 7.5 – 1: Thomas as a safety is perhaps not quite on the same level as Eric Berry, but he can regularly put up glamour numbers and has higher odds, which makes him a value pick like McCoy.
Last year Thomas had eight interceptions and even returned two of them for a touchdown. Voters love big plays like that. Also, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll had to have seen something he loved about Thomas as he blew off former USC safety Taylor Mays, who would have been a top-10 pick if he came out a year earlier, in favour of getting Thomas. In general, Thomas is underrated and that makes him a very valuable potential pick for DROY.
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