Denman can strike gold at Punchestown
Hindsight is a wonderful view of the world but absolutely no immediate use when trying to back a winner at the Punchestown Festival.
The sight of Tony McCoy trying to get Twist Magic into action before the start of the Boylesports.com Champion Chase yesterday evening was the cue for backers to try and lay off as much of their liability as possible but it was all too late. The race started and the horse did not. Ouch, a true kick in the profit margins.
There is a similar thought to the main event on the second day of the meeting, the Grade One Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup. A field of 12 runners offers enough options to think about whether the favourite is one to back or lay.
On the credit side Denman goes into the race rated at least 18lbs better than any of his 11 rivals, on the debit side would you wish to take a short price about a horse who has failed to complete in half of his last four starts?
But think of his victory in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury in November, when he beat What A Friend by three-and-a-half lengths giving the second the small matter of 22lbs, and then think of the way What A Friend has gone on to win two Grade One races in his own right. But then think about the fact that Denman’s Hennessy victory is his only win two years.
Even Paul Nicholls admitted to some concerns when he said: “You just worry about some of the horses at the back-end of the season – you never know quite how they’re going to perform.”
However, the trainer believes that the signs for Denman are looking good. “He’s in good form. He was out this morning, particularly fresh and well. And he does look particularly well for him. He’s done very well since Cheltenham, which is not what normally happens. So we’re very happy with him.”
The final arbiter has to be the form book and that gives Denman the edge. Cooldine has 24 lengths to make up on their running in the Cheltenham Gold Cup while Joncol, a fast-improving seven-year-old, may find this ground a shade fast for him. He is also held on a line through What A Friend, who beat him by one-and-three-quarter lengths in the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown in December, where J'y Vole finished last.
The mare showed better form to finish third to Albertas Run in the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival but she has yet to win at three miles. Barbers Shop was only seventh in the Ryanair - and is held on his run behind Denman in the Hennessy - while Tranquil Sea was ninth and is likely to find this ground too fast (as will Notre Pere) and Planet Of Sound 11th.
War Of Attrition won this race and the Cheltenham Gold Cup in 2006 but a leg injury has robbed him of that level of talent. He has won twice over hurdles this season but, in what will be the last race of his career, it is hard to see him turning back the clock.
No hindsight required for that call.
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