Devon Alexander v Andrei Kotelnik
On Saturday night in Missouri, IBF and WBC light-welterweight champion Devon Alexander takes on Andrei Kotelnik in what should be another exciting clash in the 140lbs class.
In terms of competitiveness you’d be hard pushed to find a boxing division more so than the light-welterweights right now. Not only do you have “big four” of Marcos Maidana, Timothy Bradley Junior,
Amir Khan and Alexander, you also have quality just outside such as Kotelnik and Victor Ortiz, as well as veterans such as Nate Campbell and Joan Guzman.
Alexander goes into this bout as the heavy favourite. As one of the bright young names of the sport and boasting a record of 20-0-0 much is expected of “Alexander the Great”. In contrast Kotelnik is looking to get his career back on track after being inactive for over a year following a crushing defeat to Khan which saw him lose his WBA title to the Olympic silver medallist.
Against Khan the “Kotelya” appeared very average and one dimensional, although it was an impressive and tactical performance from the Bolton youngster.
Although not the most technically gifted pugilist, Kotelnik can lay claim to being the only person to defeat the impressive Argentinean Maidana. The Ukrainian is a gritty fighter who will dig in, fight on the inside and grind out a result. Anyone who saw him in action against Khan will testify that he is more of tough jabber than a boxer mover, but he lacks any serious power. His only other professional defeat came at the hands of Junior Witter who was defeated by Alexander last August.
There is no deny Alexander has serious talent, he boasts an unblemished card, has plenty of technical skill, is a slick mover, has fast hands, throws rapid combinations and a gets a decent amount of power behind his punches. In his last fight against Juan Urango Alexander stayed on the outside, let the gritty Columbian throw down in the middle while he darted in and hit him with combinations, which culminated in a tenth round TKO.
A similar tactic should expected tomorrow night as Kotelnik will set up camp in the middle of the ring and sit with his granite chin protected by a tight jab. Alexander won’t want to get caught in a war of jabs as Kotelnik will most likely blunder in throw out a left or a 1-2 and back out again, trying to throw Alexander of his game and him into a scrap.
This fight is most likely to be a long affair, 14 of Kotelnik’s last 16 fights have gone the distance and once again he will be looking for his durability to grind out a result. Alexander will almost certainly try and pick him in from the outside, but Kotelnik has a sturdy chin, he won’t go down easily and could ask question of the champion with his awkward style.
However Alexander will undoubtedly throw more and land more shots than the challenger and although he might not get a stoppage it’s hard to see past him for the victory.
Prediction: Alexander unanimous decision
This fight could go one of two ways for Alexander, he could dominate from the outside just nipping in and picking the Ukrainian of at will, or he could get dragged into a battle of chins and jabs, just like Maidana did. Alexander needs to avoid this at all cost.
Ultimately the American should have too much, his speed should prove too fast for Kotelnik to handle and the challenger will probably spend the majority of the bout on the defensive. It’s hard to see Alexander losing that many rounds in what should be a lop-sided fight.
Tags: