Do AGW advocates fell 100% sure about their views on global warming? Ever have any doubts?

Question

Dana: That's good and I'm surprised you would admit that! : )

Answer 1

Of course not, it's only the deniers who are 100% sure they're right.

The way I see it, even if there's a 5% chance that the climate is changing as much as the IPCC or other scientific organizations say, it is worth taking action on. But the probability is actually far more than 5%, as the consensus is that it's "very likely" that it's happening, and that we're causing it.

Answer 2

I'm a true skeptic - I'm never 100% certain of AGW.  I always question new information and data, and evaluate any new information which seems to contradict with what I think I know.  That's how science works - we're always learning new things and needing to re-evaluate what we know.

Overall I'm 99% sure AGW is correct, based on the preponderance of scientific evidence supporting the theory.

Answer 3

100% certainty is foolish.

Answer 4

Like Dana, I work in a science field, few people with science backgrounds like to put absolutes on anything, It is usually deniers who try to make it sound like we do by trying to attach labels like believer or religion. The fact is even the IPCC put a figure of ~90% on AGW.

Answer 5

I don't think it's really healthy to be 100% sure about something.  You should always run a sort-of Bayesian analysis in your mind whenever new data becomes available, mentally adjusting the odds on whether an idea is correct or not. The way I look at is something like this:

The odds of AGW by greenhouse gases being a real effect ~95%

The odds of the climate changing in a really bad way if "business as usual" continues for the next 50 years ~75%

The odds of something catastrophic happening (e.g. shutdown of the global conveyor belt) ~5%

The odds of us destroying Earth's climate completely (e.g. Venus II) ~0.001%

The odds of peak fossil fuels preventing us from s******g up the climate completely ~50%

These are not meant to be the actual numbers, just examples of the way I think of it.  Trying to prevent these things from happening is just a matter of insurance against an uncertain future.

I should say that while I can't be sure that my beliefs are right, I am much more certain that some views expressed on here are wrong.

Answer 6

Sure.  I go along with the IPCC scientists, who said it was 99% certain.  Note that they meet every 5 years, and every 5 years that certainty has gone up, as more data accumulates.

But, would you bet your well being on a 100:1 shot?  Or even 10:1?  Few leaders of developed countries will, they're working to fix global warming, not waiting for a long shot possibility.