Very few people are in a position to carpool - either you live very close to someone you work with, AND share identical schedules, or you don't. If you don't, the extra driving out of your way to go to your friend's house offsets any savings from going the rest of the trip.
So at most, an HOV lane results in 8% of drivers carpooling instead of 4%.
Because there are so few of them, it's clear sailing through the HOV lane - say it saves them 20 minutes each.
But everyone else is crowded into one fewer lane. Everyone else's commute takes 5 or 7 more minutes than it would if the HOV lane were just opened up to all users.
Do the math - - on an average 45 minute commute, 5 minutes extra times 90% of drivers, versus 10 minutes saved times 10% of drivers, plus the entire 45 minutes saved times the incremental 2% of drivers who carpool who otherwise wouldn't......
On those assumptions, HOV lanes actually increase pollution.
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