Do We Know that Mars is Warming?

Question

Past questions on this topic seem to focus on news stories...

What is the science on this topic?

What are the indicators of Mars warming? How certain are they? Are they adequate to conclude that warming on Mars is global, not regional? What is the time period covered, and is that adequate to conclude that Mars is warming? What are the conclusions about the possible causes? Which potential causes appear to be most likely at the moment?

Are skeptics as skeptical about Mars' warming as they are about Earth's, or is it just a convenient sound byte that they instantly adopt without question?

Answer 1

Hmm, let me put on my "doubters" hat for a moment.

1) No. We haven't been monitoring it long enough. Mars is probably 4 billion years old and we've only got a few years of measurements.

2) No. Some of the instrumentation is too close to other heat sources on-board the space-ship and that's corrupting the data (the scientists aren't smart enough to know that, but I am).  It's called the Circuit Heat Island effect.

3) No. There are no thermometers located at some latitudes so the scientists are only "guessing" the temperature there.  They call it interpolation, but they're really just making things up.

4) No. I heard that a Y2K problem with the software caused the global average (for a couple years) to be off by 0.003°C.  So obviously, we need to throw the entire dataset out the window and we can't trust the other 2 datasets which show the same warming either.

I could go on, but I think you get the point ;-)

Answer 2

It's one of those things like the MWP that doesn't appear to have anything to do with AGW, but it gets a lot of mileage.  As the story goes a while back NASA posted some new findings about temperature trends on Mars, which they've tracked since the 1970's.  The Deniers immediately picked it up as "Global Warming on Mars"  and it's circulated on the internet ever since, despite NASA's clarification to the contrary.  One can find instances of both cooling and warming on the other planets, just as one can on earth.  There doesn't appear to be any reason to think that these have any bearing on discussion of AGW.

George Bush's term "Climate Change"  kind of puts a happy face on the idea that we are probably entering a mass extinction we ourselves are causing.  Climate Change, after all, goes on everywhere, all the time, so nothing special is happening, eh?

Answer 3

We don't know 100% wether or not if mars is warming. One theory is that mars is in a warming period. We concluded this because the ice caps (dry ice - sort of) is melting. I don't know the other theory completely but its something like this: Dust storms took place in mars which moved the ice caps somewhere else. I know the way I presented it sounds ridiculous but.. Its something about the dust storms causing it.

Answer 4

Well this RealClimate entry is a bit out of date, but answers many of your questions.

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=1...

For example:

"So what is causing Martian climate change now? Mars has a relatively well studied climate, going back to measurements made by Viking, and continued with the current series of orbiters, such as the Mars Global Surveyor. Complementing the measurements, NASA has a Mars General Circulation Model (GCM) based at NASA Ames."

"Globally, the mean temperature of the Martian atmosphere is particularly sensitive to the strength and duration of hemispheric dust storms.  Large scale dust storms change the atmospheric opacity and convection; as always when comparing mean temperatures, the altitude at which the measurement is made matters, but to the extent it is sensible to speak of a mean temperature for Mars, the evidence is for significant cooling from the 1970's, when Viking made measurements, compared to current temperatures. However, this is essentially due to large scale dust storms that were common back then, compared to a lower level of storminess now. The mean temperature on Mars, averaged over the Martian year can change by many degrees from year to year, depending on how active large scale dust storms are."

"Thus inferring global warming from a 3 Martian year regional trend is unwarranted. The observed regional changes in south polar ice cover are almost certainly due to a regional climate transition, not a global phenomenon, and are demonstrably unrelated to external forcing. There is a slight irony in people rushing to claim that the glacier changes on Mars are a sure sign of global warming, while not being swayed by the much more persuasive analogous phenomena here on Earth…"

I think it's fair to say that we suspect Mars may be warming on a global scale, but don't have enough evidence to be certain of it.  It's important to note that while the south polar cap is vaporizing, the north polar cap is growing.

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2003/...

To answer your final question, it's abundantly clear that the 'skeptics' are not nearly as skeptical about warming on Mars as they are of warming on Earth, because Mars warming is convenient for their denial.  However, there is not nearly as much evidence for Mars warming as there is for Earth warming, or even for anthropogenic Earth warming.  Not even close.

Answer 5

Yes the dry ice caps on Mars have been receding since we've been observing them.  In fact all the bodies in the solar system with signs of climate change are showing signs of warming.  

The assertion by believers that warming on the Earth must be because of CO2 because there is no other explanation is very unscientific.

(edit)

Dana, you're funny.  You claim that Mars is getting colder despite the dry ice caps receding?  No reasons given, you just assert the planet is getting colder.  

That's not science.

Answer 6

ASTRONAUTS MAY KNOW THAT MARS IS WARMING OR NOT. BUT IT DEFINITELY WARM BECAUSE IT IS THE NEAREST PLANET TO THE SUN.

Answer 7

It's not just Mars, but several planets are or appear to be warming (Mars, Jupiter, Triton, Neptune, Pluto, and others). Other planets in the solar system warming are not good signs for the AGW crowd. People who want to blame humans have to down play this issue as other planets warming would suggest the sun as the only real common factor. Of course, us skeptics know and have been yelling, "It's the sun stupid!"

http://motls.blogspot.com/2006/05/global...

Answer 8

You have to love the fake science denier movement don't you Crazycon

(a) Only evidence of warming on Mars shrinking Co2 ice cap

(b) Jupiter produces more heat internally than it gets from the sun

(c) Pluto's temp may have raised 3F but that is from a starting point of -400F this would suggest that Pluto's temp has risen 3 times that of the Earth in the last century? perhaps the Sun is warmer farther out or this theory is full of hot air! Ignoring the denier hype, the scientific theory on this is, it's down to the very elliptical orbit Pluto has which changes drastically it's distance from the Sun.

(F) The solar theory is complete BS the Sun is monitored constantly by several satellites SOHO being the main one there has been no increase in output that is scientific FACT.

Answer 9

Mars is warming because those !@#$%^& martians keep buying the SUV's and will not change to the florescent light bulbs. Oh well. I guess if they want their planet to catch fire and flood they can keep that up. Maybe algore can sell them some CO2 offset credits so atleast they will not feel guilty about it.