Do the recent Glasgow East election results mean that Scotland will be one step forward to independence?

Question

I'm an American and I've been interested in the SNP and Scottish independence ))

What do you think of the recent SNP victory in a Labour stronghold means? ))

Answer 1

Its just a protest vote as it always is in by elections. Come the general election labour will win back the seat. Besides Glasgow is by no means representative of Scotland.

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Answer 2

I live about ten miles outside the Glasgow East constituency and took a keen interest in the by-election there.

First thing to say is the SNP victory in Glasgow East is a remarkable feat.  They say in the West of Scotland if Labour put up a monkey with a red rosette people will vote for it.  Not this time.  Alex Salmond, the SNP leader, framed the campaign as a "contest between the Scottish Government in Holyrood and the Labour Government in Westminster" and it proved to be a very astute tactic.

It's not clear, however, if this result is much of a bellwether for Scottish independence.  There were a huge number of factors swirling around this election - many local issues within the constituency, the collapse of the Labour leadership in the Scottish Parliament, the possible corruption of the previous Labour incumbent, the massive unpopularity of the Brown-led Government throughout the UK, and the relative popularity of the SNP Government in Holyrood.

Notwithstanding, if the SNP Government can maintain its momentum for the next couple of years then the UK General Election - almost certainly in the spring of 2010 - could see Labour wiped out; they no longer represent their traditional core vote and the SNP is more progressive on key issues like taxation, health care and nuclear weapons.  On present showing Labour would lose hundreds of seats to the Conservatives in the South of England, to the Tories and Lib Dems in the North, and to the SNP in Scotland.  If that installs a Conservative Government in Westminster - and that's odds-on at the moment - and the SNP are strengthened by more Westminster seats - not so certain - then the stage could be set for a referendum on independence in the autumn of that year.

Whether the referendum happens will depend largely on how the SNP finesse that legislation through the Scottish Parliament as they do not have a working majority in the chamber.  If the referendum goes ahead, I suspect the British media and international political forces - not least the USA - will swell against independence because the geopolitical repercussions of a diminished UK are considerable, especially if an independent Scotland ousted nuclear weapons from its soil.  The result would depend, therefore, on the momentum gathered by the will for Scottish independence in Scotland and, possibly, by the impetus for England to become independent again too - an important corollary.