Do you believe Election Markets?

Question

I was following the Intrade.com and this one.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/latest_results_from_rasmussen_markets

They are election Markets, which allow people to buy and sell shares related to the possiblity of an outcome. They are regarded as quite accurate. It currently shows Obama 60 McCain 40.

What do you think?

Answer 1

Well, they are the only ones who are putting their money on the line for their predictions.  

Answer 2

Yes.  I've been watching Intrade for a long time.  I heard Glenn Beck talking about it on his radio show recently too.  Intrade is very accurate, usually better than polls.

I think they have it right on.  This election is not as close as people think right now.  If you look at Real Clear Politics, they take an average of all the polls (Rassmussen, Zogby, Quiniapak, etc) , state-by-state, and do an electoral tally.  They also have Obama up by a good margin.

Answer 3

Can't trust a site that says there are 101.2% of the people voting. Look at the Ohio prediction.

Democrat 51.2%

Republican 50%

Answer 4

Thats sounds right, but I think that will change soon since McCain quickly came up with a new plan.

Answer 5

I think they're about right on this one.