Do you believe I can win? (Poker)?

Question

I am an Intermediate skilled Online Poker player.

I play at FullTiltPoker and Pokerstars.com

I usually play 9 or 10 player SitNGos and 90% of the time

I cash in 1st or 3rd place. I play $5 and $10 tournaments.

I would like to know if you believe I can win a big tournament?

There are so many satellite tournaments that if I could just win one tournament I could get entry to a big tournament where even if I were to lose in 100th place I could make thousands.

It seems like everytime I play in these tournaments I am using my standard SITNGO strategy and playing very Tight Aggressive but I always end up losing in 20th place out of 1000 entries. I can't ever get to 1st thru 3rd place where the entry tickets are given out.

Do you believe I can win?

Can you give me any advice?

Answer 1

I don't think you can base your ability to win a satellite or qualifier on your ability to play single table SNGs.

In ST SNGs, about 33% of the field (3 out of 9) cash.  In a satellite, it's generally from 8 to 20% of the field, depending on how much the satellite costs and what event it satellites you to.  So it's considerably harder to make it.

I recommend playing more MTTs (multi-table tournaments) to improve your ability.  There are certain key differences.

For instance, in a STT, you can often build and establish a table image since you are playing with the same people the entire tourney.  However, your table image is much less releveant in an MTT, since you're going to move tables and play against completely new opponents every so often.  Second, whereas you can play a bit more loosely in a STT in order to build up an early stack, the early stages of MTTs are a lot more about survival.  Conversely, closer to the bubble, it's wiser to play more loosely and aggressively, especially if you have a decent chip stack, in an MTT as opposed to an STT.  This is if you are playing a standard, freezeout tourney, not a satellite.  If you are playing a satellite, you don't have to be #1, you just have to cash, so you actually might want to play more conservatively if you already in qualifying position.

There are a lot more differences between STTs and MTTs, so I highly recommend playing $2-$10 freezeout MTTs (FT and PS have tons of them) to gain some experience before going after satellites (which are much tougher than freezeouts).

Answer 2

Get honest with yourself.

You aren't cashing 90% of the time, otherwise you'd already have thousands.

Or at least many hundreds, then play $20 and $30 SnG.

Answer 3

Yes, you can. I believe that play more will improve the skill. Of course, you need a bit of luck to get into the final.

Answer 4

Every tourney is different. Even if you look at the big names in poker they get knocked out early and some unknowns will be at the final table. You just have to have the funds to lose if you lose and give it a shot. Do Not get a line of cred on your house to enter the WSOP. Just keep playing and sooner or later you will have your day. Good luck and have fun!!!