Do you think India's GDP growth of 9% each year would decrease in coming years? Is so why?

Question

Do you think India's GDP growth of 9% each year would decrease in coming years? Is so why?

Answer 1

I don not think it will go down because

Infrastructure is improving(though slowly but still)

More and more population is joing work force. (50% population is below 21 years)

manufacturing and domestic IT sector is also coming up big time.

Agriculture is reviving

Exports are increasing

Only war can stop the growth . Or if communist came to power and stop the economic reforms then may be

Answer 2

I do not think that the probability of annual growth og India's GDP falling substantially or falling below 9% for the coming years in succession. If at all it will fall to 8.5% or worst to 8% in one or two years but it will pick up again to  9% or more. soon and for quite a number of years in the coimng decade.

The reason it may temporarily fll somewhat id because of (a) the period of required to adjust to the much higher cost of petroleum-based inputs, (b) a slowdown in the world economy and (c) capacity and infrstructure constraints being faced currently. The usual strikes and bandhs during the phase up to the next general elections will also take a toll on GDP, hurting its growth rate.The reason that the GDP growth rate will remain strong and even reaching and crossing the 9% rate soon again are:(a) the strong growth of the sevices sector, a major part of which is domestic demand driven and not very sensitive to the rise in the price of crude oil, (b) likely large demand for export of services and construction material from the oil producing countries, particularly the middleeast, which are poised to invest much of their petro-dollars on various construction projects, (b) easing of infrastructure bottlenecks over time and fresh crporate investments in capacity expansion, (c) fresh doses of liberalisation policies that were held back in the last 4 years or so.