Do you think McCain will drop Palin? Would it be political suicide to do so?

Question

Bookies in Britain and Ireland are setting odds. They went from 20:1 to 8:1 yesterday.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/bloomberg/20080902/pl_bloomberg/azjwbcginwsg

Answer 1

It was political suicide to pick her in the first place.  

Answer 2

Rock and a hard place.

McCain's political suicide was picking Palin.

He's screwed either way.  

If he keeps her, he's going to lose.   That much is clear now.

If he dropped her for Lieberman, the Christian Conservatives would be irate.  They would have barely come out if he picked Lieberman from the start, and would want McCain's head if he swapped this nut job Palin (who they love) for him now.

If he dropped her for Romney....well he hates Romney (as do I).  It wouldn't change much on his base support, but he could give up the 'Hillary' voters that he has kind of been depending on to pull a victory from what has looked like (and it's getting more clear) certain defeat.

Answer 3

Yes it would be.  Are the odds for him dropping Palin?  In 1972, Thomas Eagleton was nominated for Johnson's running mate and then it was found out he had pysical and mental health issues that made him not such a great candidate. He withdrew from the race and Nixon won by a landslide.  I doubt very much McCain would have her withdraw, although I can see her withdrawing on her own.  I wouldn't take the bet at 8:1.

I would put the current odds of Obama winning at 3:1 with today's polling.  It's all up to Ohio once again.  If McCain loses FL(unlikely) he has little chance of winning.

Answer 4

No, he's not going to drop Palin because yes, it would be political suicide to flip flop on this. Obama/Biden would eat him for breakfast from here to the election if he couldn't get even a vp choice right. So he's going to resolutely go forward touting her good qualities, whatever those might be, and saying pish posh to the controversies.

ETA: if he really felt he had no choice but to drop Palin, he needed to be very careful. Lieberman just defected from the Democratic party for the sole purpose of getting on the McCain list. And look how great he was for Gore. Picking Lieberman he might as well pick out caskets for his political career.

Romney -- McCain hates Romney, the moderates hate Romney, the far right only sort of likes Romney.

Ron Paul or Mike Huckabee might draw in the libertarian leaning conservatives (for Paul) or Christian right (Huckabee). If he asked my opinion having gotten rid of Palin, I'd advise on Huckabee myself.

Other women: Condi Rice. I think Condi hates him, but that might not stop her from wanting to be VEEP. A black woman whom I don't like at all but admit is probably more intelligent than the other three candidates combined. But would it be too much connection to the Bush administration?

Olympia Snowe -- Maine senator with 13 years in office. Conservative but sane. Has the same "maiden of the woods" thing going as Palin but with a little "gravitas" for the office. And she's over 60 so if she probably won't have any more babies and if her single daughter gets pregnant she probably already has a job to support the baby.  First generation American (her father emigrated from Greece.)

I'm a Democrat but I think Snowe is awesome and would draw in some conservatives who like sanity as well as some Hillary supporters.

Ron Paul, Mike Huckabee, or Olympia Snowe. He could almost save himself by picking one of them. But would they accept the job knowing "congratulations, you're second" ?

Answer 5

If anything, she will step down citing family needs or something - so that McCain doesn't look like any more of an idiot that he already is.  McCain will then go with the safe choice, Romney, and proceed to lose the election anyway.

Palin was a stunt and at this point it looks like it is backfiring.  He'll give it at least 3 more weeks to see if things calm down, but if they don't he might throw another "hail mary" and choose someone else.

Answer 6

I only vote in Vegas!

But he won't!  We support her, she is the core beliefs of the republican ticket. Her daughter getting pregnant only makes her MORE like the millions of moms in the US on both sides of the ticket.  This can happen to ANY family of a teen age child.. boy or girl!

Answer 7

I think if McCain doesn't drop Palin, that's going to be political suicide. Palin is ruining McCain's chances for the whitehouse.  

Answer 8

Why would he do that?  She is a proved reformer and has more executive experience than anybody on the ticket.  I like her.  She is about change and reform.  Something that the empty suit head of the Democrat ticket can only "promise" but has no actual experience in.

Answer 9

1)  No.  Everything the media has dug up through their "investigative reporting" is from items already in the news (mostly Alaskan news which is why they're not known about in the lower 48).  If any of this was unknown to the McCain campaign, then it's because none of them know how to use Google.

2)  Yes.  Only one Presidential candidate in my lifetime has dropped their running mate.  McGovern was going to lose in a landslide regardless, but replacing Eagleton just made things look even worse (ironically, an "anonymous" slur against McGovern turned out be the words of Eagleton - now that was a lousy job of vetting your VP candidate.)

Answer 10

No, he won't drop Palin.  Palin has united the base and now McCain can finally go after the moderates.  

I don't know why anyone would drop someone because their daughter is pregnant, sounds like dumb politics to me.

Almost as dumb as Obama calling Palin "inexperienced".

Answer 11

Yes and yes.  

Answer 12

8 to 1 is still pretty heavy odds against her being dropped.  I would have guessed maybe 4 to 1.

Off the top of my head, I can think of two recent cases that were similar.  McGovern chose to drop Eagleton;  Mondale chose not to drop Ferraro.   In both cases, the campaign was badly hurt.  It's a case of "damned if you do, damned if you don't."

I'm wondering, if McCain did drop Palin, whom would he pick to replace her?  Lieberman would draw the wrath of the Evangelicals.  Romney or Pawlenty might not even accept the nomination at this point.  And having made the "bold move" of choosing a woman, would he lose points by going with a male in the end?

Answer 13

Palin wasn't vetted at all prior to 2 days before she was chosen.  All McCain had time to do was to determine that she was a good pawn to sacrifice for a few political points.  What are you Republicans going to do when you see that she "resigns"?  You're going to know that she was used and thrown away like toliet paper by McCain.  Just remember we told you so.

Answer 14

I think that McCain will pick another VP candidate.  Palin is a neophyte and she will step aside once she see's the firestorm that she created by ignoring the needs of her special needs infant and her eldest child who unmarried and pregnant. Palin was naive to accept McCains offer, and McCain showed poor judgment by choosing her.  

Answer 15

Don't you think Yahoo's a little left leaning?  It could happen though, but if it did he would lose my vote for sure!

Answer 16

No he won't and yes it would be.

Answer 17

No way.. that's ridiculous?  I think most people would reconsider Obama if they could.

Answer 18

No he won't.  He's a maverick.  She's a maverick.  That's why he picked her.  The Silent Majority isn't mean and vindictive like the elitists and the sympathy vote with kick in.

Answer 19

why would you drop someone who is energizing your base? The lefty blogosphere and others who believe what they read there would vote for Obama even if it was proven he was an Al Qaeda operative.

Answer 20

Not a chance. The dems are running scared.