Question:

Do you think house prices and property shares will go back to previous levels in the foreseeable future?

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Or will those times not come back for a very long time, like 10 years or more?

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3 ANSWERS


  1. it could take up to 10 years

    if stocks go down from the high 40%, it would take a return of over 5% a year compounded to return and that is not even a real return cause that is not including inflation.  if inflation is 3% they would have to return 8% to come back.


  2. They will come back, but it will take many years. Real estate has enormous cycles of about 20 years. The good news is that most of the declines will prob be done by 2009, the bad news is that after that prices prob wont be going up for a few more years.

  3. Predictions are difficult and you have generalized across the entire stock market and across many separate local real estate markets.  However, I'll take a shot.  

    The stock market always fluctuates and sometimes moves quickly.  The recent drop is not so large and the U.S. economy is basically sound.  The overall market can recover completely in much less than a year.  

    Real estate prices are not as volatile as stock prices and credit for home loans is much harder to obtain now than in the recent past.  Home prices will recover in most areas of the U.S., but may take a few years to recover fully, especially where prices were inflated by irrational exuberance and have dropped as a result.  

    Neither market will take 10 years to recover from recent losses.

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