Do you think hurricane Gustov is going to hit N.O.?

Question

Do you think hurricane Gustov is going to hit N.O.?

Answer 1

It is too early to tell, but it is heading in that general direction.  It wouldn't surprise me if it did.  I was just talking with a friend today about it being another katrina.  It is still too early to make any predictions, but it is pretty likely it will make landfall somewhere on the gulf coast as a category 3 or higher.  

Answer 2

Well, it depends on which forecast model you look at.

The BAMS, BMAD, BAMM, models are bringing gustav to almost a direct hit with New Orleans. This does not appear to be the likely scenario.

The UKMET, LBAR, GFDL, models are showing that the hurricane will likely make a Central/Norther texas or extreme wester LA landfall. This looks more reasonable  and will most likely will be the path.

BUT.... The NHC(National Hurricane Center) model is taking the storm to make a Central LA landfall and that could involve New Orleans. The NHC model is in the middle of the two outliers so it could very well be the correct track.

Once it enters the golf with water temperatures reaching 90 it is forecast to rapidly strenghten.

Could make landfall as a Category 4 maybee 5???

It would be just as devastating.

Check out this website for more information on the track...

Answer 3

i really hope not but i have a bad feeling for some reason about it  

Answer 4

Note, the comment above about the GFDL...this is one of the better models over most of the others (UKMET, NOGAPS, etc) and it has now shifted to more of a N.O. impact as of the latest model run (from Tues. night).  Oh, and the LBAR is mainly statistical, it doesn't take into account the real atmospheric environment so it's not a model to use.  

It appears to me that a major impact to N.O. is pretty likely at this point.  But, it is still at least 5 days out so things can still change.  

The intensity forecasts from the models are pretty catastrophic looking.  They may be overdoing it, but there are a lot of things in favor of at least a cat 3 storm in the gulf.  So if you live in N.O. I would at least start making a game plan now and figure out a way to get out if it becomes more apparent that Gustav is coming for sure.  At least get north of Lake Pontchartrain.

Answer 5

Right now its projected to be another catastophic event for the New Orleans area.

Answer 6

its goin into the gulf of mexico which means it will get way bigger there which means it will be really dangerous but yeah...

youll probably just catch some of it its going west of yall

Answer 7

I really, really hope it doesn't hit. I just moved back to the N.O. area and i don't want to go through all of that again.

Answer 8

Where ever it hits, it's not going to be good. As for it being another Katrina, I hope not. I almost could not bear to live through that again as I live on the Mississippi Gulf Coast where Katrina made landfall, not New Orleans. New Orleans had major damage because their levees broke. But as far as the projected path, it is not looking good for us. I pray that it doesn't stregthen as much as they think it will and it goes way further south to Texas.