Do you think scientist are skeptical of the current negative PDO?

Question

Is it really considered a short term prediction?

Are the majority committed to acceptance?

What will be some of the effects?

Answer 1

The PDO operates on a 25 - 30 year cycle, temperatures will decline over the next 25 - 30 years. The warm phase of the PDO started in 1977 and ended the global cooling scare, and subsequently caused the current global warming alarmism scare. A look at globally averaged temperatures clearly shows the PDO phases in the temperature record with phase changes occuring on an average of 30 year intervals.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs...

The last thirty years saw more frequent El-Nino's which was responsible for the majority of the increase in global temperatures. The thirty years before that saw more frequent La-Nina's which lead to cooling and the global cooling scare, the laws of physics associated with ocean surface temperatures still function the same as they always have regardless of the amount of trace gasses in the atmosphere.

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wol...

The scary thing about the next 30 years is that the decline in solar activity is also forecast to continue until the middle of this century, which will amplify the cool phase of the PDO, which will lead to at least a 1.0 degree C. drop in globaly averaged temperatures by 2030.

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/...

http://www.warwickhughes.com/agri/Solar_...

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Answer 2

This could be a longer term trend, setting up a pattern that shifts more warm air toward Antarctica.

Any  shift that tends to get more heat toward the poles will be favoured when there is a lot of water vapour forming over the southern oceans.

This would be inconsistent with  previous periods within living memory. That should not convince us, as there appears to be many things that may be changing just now.

Answer 3

whaaaaaaat, i must admit my lack of knowledge. what is PDO?

Answer 4

Not at all.  It may be responsible for keeping 2007 from clearly setting a new record high average temperature, and for some of the current cold winter weather.

But the PDO is a short term thing, and won't hold temperatures down for more than a year or two.  Note that global warming fought it to a draw in 2007.